Welsh language data from the Annual Population Survey: July 2019 to June 2020

The Census of Population is the key source used to measure the number of Welsh speakers in Wales. However, as the Annual Population Survey (APS) provides quarterly results, it is useful to use the APS to look at trends in the Welsh language between censuses.

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Main points

For the year ending 30 June 2020, the Annual Population Survey reported that 28.5% of people aged three and over were able to speak Welsh. This figure equates to 861,700 people.

This is 1.1 percentage point lower than the previous year (year ending 30 June 2019), equating to 29,400 fewer people.

The chart shows how these figures have been gradually increasing each year since March 2010 (25.2%, 731,000), after they had been gradually declining from 2001 to 2007. However, the number of people reporting to be able to speak Welsh has declined each quarter from December 2018 to March 2020, before increasing slightly in the most recent quarter. This increase should be treated with caution due to the change of survey mode since mid-March because of the coronavirus pandemic. See ‘Changes to the survey’ below.

The highest numbers of Welsh speakers continue to be found in Carmarthenshire (90,600), but for the first time since the survey began, Cardiff (89,700) has overtaken Gwynedd (with 89,200) to have the second highest number of Welsh speakers in Wales.

The lowest numbers of Welsh speakers are in Merthyr Tydfil (11,800) and Blaenau Gwent (11,600).

The highest percentages of Welsh speakers can be found in Gwynedd (75%) and the Isle of Anglesey (66%).

The lowest percentages of Welsh speakers are in Bridgend (17%) and Torfaen (17%).

16.2% (489,300) of people aged three and over reported that they spoke Welsh daily, 4.8% (146,400) weekly and 6.0% (182,200) less often. 1.4% (43,800) reported that they never spoke Welsh despite being able to speak it, with the remaining 71.5% not able to speak Welsh.

32.7% (990,300) reported that they could understand spoken Welsh, 25.5% (777,400) could read and 23.3% (705,500) could write Welsh.

Note

The Census results and APS results for 2001 and 2011 have also been plotted on the chart above to indicate the large discrepancy between the two sources at the same time periods. There are a number of possible explanations for why Census results would be lower than survey results. For example, the Census is a statutory self-completion questionnaire, the APS is voluntary survey, which uses face-to-face and telephone interviews.

The APS results should not be compared against Census results, nor used to measure progress towards the Welsh Government target of a million Welsh speakers by 2050. The Welsh language strategy Cymraeg 2050, clearly states that this target was based on census data and that progress towards this target will be monitored using future census data.

A blog published by the Chief Statistician last year, gave a brief discussion on how to interpret the Welsh language data in the APS. More information about the differences between the APS and the Census can be found in a bulletin presenting more detailed results on the Welsh language from the APS from 2001 to 2018.

The APS is carried out by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Details about how the survey is developed and carried out can be found on the Office for National Statistics website.

Changes to the survey

Following government advice regarding the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Annual Population Survey as well as all other Office for National Statistics (ONS) face-to-face studies about people, families and households were suspended.

From mid-March 2020, the APS survey has been carried out by telephone only. A change in how a survey is administered can affect survey results. This set of results cover the period from July 2019 to June 2020. From July 2019 to mid-March 2020, around half of the interviews were carried out face-to-face and half by telephone.

By comparing those who completed the survey over the telephone against those who completed the survey face-to-face in the period before March 2020, respondents did appear to be more likely to state that they could speak Welsh when answering the survey over the telephone. At this stage, it is not possible to say whether a slight increase in Welsh language ability during April to June 2020 is as a result of the change in survey mode or actual changes in the population’s Welsh language ability. Results should therefore be interpreted with caution.

Revision

The ONS have been closely monitoring the impact of the change in survey mode on the estimates and had found that this change had resulted in a higher proportion of owner occupiers participating in the survey and a lower proportion of renters participating in the survey than before the pandemic. As a result of this in December 2020, they revised how they weight the APS data and have re-weighted their estimates for January to June 2020 (i.e. quarters 1 and 2 of 2020) to account for this change. This revision has slightly reduced the number and percentage of people who report being able to speak Welsh.