Subnational population projections (national parks): 2018 based

These projections provide an indication of the possible size and structure of national parks’ population for the period 2018 to 2043. However, this release focusses on the first 10 years of the projection period, as projections tend to become increasingly uncertain in the longer-term, as trends may change over that timescale.

The projections are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact of government policies, changing economic circumstances, or other factors (like the coronavirus pandemic) on future population.

This release provides analysis of the latest national park population projections, including comparisons with previous projections.

Main points for 2018 to 2028

Projected population change

• The populations of the Brecon Beacons and Pembrokeshire Coast are projected to increase by 3.5% (1,190) and 2.5% (550) respectively.
• The population of Snowdonia is projected to decline by 1.9% (480).

Projections by age

• All three national parks are projected to see a large percentage increase in people aged 65 or over, and a larger increase in people aged 75 or over.
• The number of people of working age (aged 16 to 64 years old) and children (aged 0 to 15 years old) are projected to decrease in Pembrokeshire Coast and Snowdonia.
• The number of people in Brecon Beacons is projected to see a smaller decrease in the number of people of working age and an increase in the number of children.

Components of change

• Negative natural change is projected to increase in all three national parks.
• Positive net migration is projected to increase in all three national parks.
• Positive net migration is projected to be larger than the negative natural change in both Brecon Beacons and Pembrokeshire Coast, leading to overall projected population increases.
• Positive net migration is projected to be smaller than the negative natural change in Snowdonia, leading to overall projected population decreases.