Short-term output indicators: January to March 2021

Impact of coronavirus

These estimates cover January to March 2021 which was during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Annual estimates are also included which relate to approximately the first twelve months of the pandemic period. 

Care should be taken when interpreting these indices, estimates for individual quarters can fluctuate and it is recommended that emphasis is based on longer term trends.

Estimates for Wales are typically more volatile than the UK, and as a result comparison between the two should be made with caution, especially over the shorter term.

Main points

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All three indices decreased on an annual basis (the latest four quarters compared to the previous four quarters) for both Wales and the UK. On a quarterly basis, two of the indices showed decreases. This follows the largest quarterly decreases on record in April to June 2020 (which included part of the initial lockdown period) and the subsequent largest increases on record during July to September 2020 (reflecting the easing of restrictions over the summer months).

Index of Market Services

Compared to the previous quarter, the index of market services decreased by 0.4% in Wales and decreased by 1.6% in the UK.

The decrease in Wales was largely accounted for by decreases in Other Services and Transport.

The longer-term trends show a 7.5% decrease for Wales and a 11.1% decrease for the UK in the year to March 2021, compared with the previous twelve months. The UK decrease is the largest year-on-year decreases since the series began in 1998.

In Wales, eight of the nine Market Service industry indices decreased on an annual basis.

Index of Production

The Index of Production for Wales shows a 6.0% decrease when compared to the previous quarter. UK output decreased by 0.5% (r) over the same period.

The longer-term trend for Wales shows an 8.1% decrease in the year to March 2021 on an annual basis. UK output decreased by 7.8% over the same period.

(r) Revised after publishing on 29 July.

Index of Construction

The Index of Construction for Wales shows an 11.3% increase when comparing the latest quarter to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 2.3% over the same period.

The longer-term trend for Wales shows a 12.6% decrease in the year to March 2021 on an annual basis. UK output decreased by 13.4% over the same period.