This paper provides additional scenarios for COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) models for the 2022/23 winter period.
Documents
Science Evidence Advice: winter modelling paper update December 2022 , file type: PDF, file size: 1 MB
PDF
1 MB
If you need a more accessible version of this document please email digital@gov.wales. Please tell us the format you need. If you use assistive technology please tell us what this is.
Details
This additional analysis is a continuation of the scenarios previously published, including additional outcomes that have been requested by colleagues in the NHS in Wales. A comparison of how the actual data thus far has been tracking against the possible scenarios previously published for COVID-19 is also included, and concludes that we are currently tracking closest to the 'optimistic lower bound' scenario for COVID-19 admissions and deaths and the 'optimistic upper bound' scenario for COVID-19 occupancy.