Wellbeing of Wales, 2024 - A prosperous Wales
The report helps us assess whether we are making progress against the 7 national wellbeing goals.
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The goal for a prosperous Wales
Authors: Dr Thomas Nicholls and Sue Leake
A prosperous Wales: An innovative, productive and low carbon society which recognises the limits of the global environment and therefore uses resources efficiently and proportionately (including acting on climate change); and which develops a skilled and well-educated population in an economy which generates wealth and provides employment opportunities, allowing people to take advantage of the wealth generated through securing fair work.
What have we learnt from the data in the last year?
Following the economic shocks resulting from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, economic conditions have been somewhat calmer over the last year. Even so, the wider UK economy barely grew in 2023 and likely a similar outcome applied in Wales.
Inflation has now returned to more typical rates, at around the Bank of England’s target of 2%. However, inflation has still impacted living standards, with UK disposable household income per person remaining below the pre-pandemic level once inflation is accounted for.
Between 2021 and 2023, 21% of all people in Wales were living in relative income poverty (after housing costs were paid).
The Labour Force Survey (LFS), published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), has for many years been the key data source for assessing the Welsh economy’s short-term economic performance. Mainly due to a reduced response rate, the LFS alone is no longer considered a reliable source of information on recent trends in labour market conditions in Wales. Drawing from the Annual Population Survey (APS) and other sources such as the proportion of the workforce claiming benefits for reasons of unemployment and the number of people on PAYE payrolls, it is clear that the labour market in Wales has continued to evolve in similar fashion to the UK labour market.
APS data shows that the employment rate in Wales and in the UK increased in the year ending March 2024. The unemployment rate increased in both countries. The economic inactivity rate decreased. However, in both countries the number of working age people who were economically inactive due to ill health remains higher than pre-pandemic levels.
A national milestone on participation in education and the labour market was set in 2021 which is that at least 90% of 16 to 24 year olds will be in education, employment, or training by 2050. Provisional estimates show that 85.8% of 16 to 24 year olds were in education, employment or training in 2022, up from 83.7% in 2021. This increase is driven by an increase in the employment rate for 16 to 18 year olds. It is still too soon to assess the full impact of the pandemic on this trend.
52% of employees were covered by collective bargaining arrangements in 2023, where pay and conditions are negotiated between an employer and a trade union. The time series for this indicator is volatile but in 2023 was low compared with the average since 2011.
In April 2023, the (full-time) gender pay gap was 5.6%, unchanged from the previous year. In the year ending December 2023 the disability pay difference was £1.75 an hour (or 12.2%) meaning that disabled employees in Wales earned, on average, £1.75 less per hour than non-disabled employees. This widened by £0.43 (2.5 percentage points) compared to the previous year.
In the year ending December 2023, the ethnicity pay difference was £1.93 an hour (or 13.8%), meaning that Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees in Wales earned, on average, £1.93 less per hour than White employees. The pay difference narrowed by £0.30 (3.0 percentage points) compared to the previous year.
The qualification profile of the Welsh working age population has been improving over time. In 2023, the proportion of the population with level 3 (equivalent to A levels) and level 4 qualifications (equivalent to degree level) increased, whilst the proportion with no qualifications decreased slightly.
What is the longer term progress towards the goal?
Progress towards the goal has been mixed, with improvements in overall labour market performance compared with the period prior to devolution but less progress in addressing poverty, low productivity and pay, and low income levels. Progress has been made on decarbonisation, but more rapid change will be needed in future to meet targets.
The percentage of people living in relative income poverty in 2022-23 was 21% compared with 25% toward the end of the last century. Children are more likely to be in relative income poverty than the population overall, but here too, the incidence of poverty has decreased.
Average household incomes in Wales are considerably closer to the UK average than gross value added (GVA) per head, with differences depending on the measure used and with the gap smallest when assessed for the median household.
The national milestone on employment (based on the APS) is to eradicate the gap between the employment rate in Wales and the UK by 2050, with a focus on fair work and raising labour market participation of under-represented groups. The historical gaps in employment and activity rates between Wales and other parts of the UK have narrowed since the period of devolution, with Wales outperforming some English regions over the medium term. This represents a marked change from the period prior to devolution in the 1980s and 1990s.
Wales has a higher percentage of people earning less than the real living wage than some other parts of the UK. In addition, the evidence on other aspects of the quality of work suggests a mixed picture in Wales.
The qualification profile of the Welsh working age population has been improving over time. One of the national milestones on qualifications is that 75% of working age adults in Wales will be qualified to level 3 or higher by 2050. In 2023, 67.4% of working age adults in Wales were qualified to level 3 or higher. The other national milestone on qualifications is that the percentage of working age adults with no qualifications will be 5% or below in every local authority in Wales by 2050. In 2023, five of Wales’s 22 local authorities have 5% or less of working age adults with no qualifications.
Attainment in secondary schools rose in the years before the pandemic. Public examinations were disrupted in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, whilst 2021/22 was a transitionary year in which pupils sat written exams with some adjustments. Data for the 2022/23 school year, which saw a further transition back to pre-pandemic assessment arrangements (whilst keeping some support in place for learners), shows some continuing improvement compared to pre-pandemic years. However, children from deprived backgrounds still have poorer outcomes.
Management of the interaction between economic growth and the development of an innovative, low carbon economy is complex and poses challenges, but there are positive signs in some sectors.
Since the 2008 recession, investment in business innovation in Welsh firms has fluctuated, with some improvement in businesses being actively innovative recorded prior to the pandemic.
Travel makes a substantial contribution to carbon emissions, but there is no evidence of a shift away from cars as the main method of travel.
As of 2023, GB data indicates that traffic levels and public transport use are recovering following the pandemic but have yet to regain pre-pandemic levels, with bus use particularly impacted.
Economic performance
As across the UK as a whole, growth in the economy and in real incomes has been sluggish since the recession of 2008, reflecting poor productivity growth. Productivity growth has also been weak over this period in most other developed countries, but the UK has fared particularly badly. The prolonged period of slow growth in productivity and real incomes is unprecedented in modern times.
Over the longer run, since 1998, and taking economic indicators in the round, Wales has broadly kept pace with the UK. While its economic performance continues to be weak compared with many other parts of the UK, productivity data over the last decade gives some grounds for optimism. However, the gap with the UK as a whole remains large, and the UK itself does not perform strongly when productivity levels are compared internationally.
Gross value added (GVA) represents the value of all goods and services produced in an area. It is both the source of the real incomes people earn and the base on which taxes can be levied to fund public services.
While GVA per head of population in Wales has grown broadly in line with the UK since 1998, it remains lower than almost all other countries and regions of the UK.
Latest data (for 2022) shows that GVA per head in Wales was 72.1% of the UK average, the second lowest of the 12 UK countries and English regions, ahead of the North East.
Welsh performance on GVA per head is mainly a reflection of relatively low productivity levels. Productivity, measured as GVA per hour worked, is lower in Wales than in other UK countries and regions in England. In 2022 it was 82.7% of the UK figure. Since 2004, productivity in Wales has been in a range of 81.7% to 85.3% of the UK average.
Figure 1.1: Welsh gross value added per hour worked, relative to the UK (UK = 100), 1998 to 2022
Description of Figure 1.1: A line chart showing that GVA (gross value added) per hour worked in Wales relative to the UK (current price index UK = 100) has been relatively stable since 1998, with Welsh productivity remaining below the UK average.
Source: Welsh Government analysis of Regional labour productivity, UK, 1998 to 2022, ONS
Innovation in businesses
The latest information from the UK innovation survey for the period 2020 to 2022 indicates that 31% of Welsh businesses are innovation-active (based on an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) definition). This means that they are undertaking activities such as introducing new or significantly improved products, services, processes; or business structures or practices; or investing in research and development or training.
Wales had the lowest proportion of innovative firms of the UK countries and English regions over the period. This uses the geographic location based on businesses’ head office location. It is unclear how much of an effect this may have on measuring innovation in Wales. The most recent survey period (2020-22) includes the COVID-19 pandemic, which is likely to have had an impact on business innovation.
Figure 1.2: Innovation-active businesses in Wales and the UK, 2008-10 to 2020-22
Description of Figure 1.2: A line chart showing that the proportion of innovation-active businesses in Wales has closely followed the UK trend, with both showing a decrease for the most recent survey period (2020-22).
Source: UK Innovation Survey, Department for Business and Trade
Household income
Household income is a better indicator of people’s prosperity and material wellbeing than GVA. Average household incomes in Wales are considerably closer to the UK average than GVA per head, but there are differences depending on the measure used, with the gap narrowest when median incomes are considered.
The national indicator on income uses the measure gross disposable household income (GDHI). The national milestone on household income is to improve GDHI per head by 2035. On this measure Wales, according to the most recent data (2022), is at 82% of the UK figure, having fallen from 88% at its peak in 2003. This relative fall has partly been driven by a steep increase in household incomes in London, which has helped to drive up the UK average.
Whilst Wales has the second lowest GDHI per head of the UK countries and regions, it is broadly comparable to areas of the UK with similar characteristics.
Figure 1.3: Gross disposable household income per head, Wales and UK, 1999 to 2022
Description of Figure 1.3: A line chart showing that gross disposable household income (GDHI) per head has increased overall in Wales and the UK since 1999, with the value for Wales remaining below the UK across the timeseries.
Source: Regional Gross Disposable Household Income, ONS
Labour market
The official and most timely source of data describing labour market conditions in Wales for many years has been the LFS. While always volatile owing to a relatively small sample size, that volatility has, over the last few years, become markedly more pronounced owing largely to reduced response rates. As a result, the data at UK country and regional level are no longer classified as accredited official statistics, with relatively large confidence intervals for the Wales estimates which makes the data less reliable and more uncertain.
Current LFS data quality issues aside, it is always sensible to consider other labour market data which are published alongside LFS data to gauge the latest labour market position in Wales. Other data sources include HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data capturing the actual number of Pay As You Earn (PAYE) employees and Department for Work and Pensions data counting the number of people claiming benefits primarily for reasons of unemployment. These data show that momentum in the labour market has slowed during 2024. The Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England latest forecasts expect labour market outcomes in the UK to deteriorate over the near term.
The APS allows for estimates of labour market outcomes at a local authority level and for sub-groups of the population, and is the source for the national indicators and related national milestones. As most labour market data is survey-based and volatile, short term changes should not be over-interpreted. The national milestone on employment (based on the APS) is to eradicate the gap between the employment rate in Wales and the UK by 2050, with a focus on fair work and raising labour market participation of under-represented groups. According to the APS, the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 in Wales was 73.5% in the year ending March 2024 whilst the UK rate was 75.4%. Since the year ending March 2005, the employment rate has increased by 4.1 percentage points in Wales and by 2.9 percentage points in the UK with the gap in the employment rate narrowing from 3.1 percentage points to 1.9 percentage points.
COVID-19 had adverse labour market effects which have disproportionately affected groups that were already disadvantaged. This includes people in low paid jobs, in less secure employment, young people, people reaching the end of their working lives, and people in various groups that were already experiencing labour market inequalities. However, many of the adverse effects have subsequently reduced or reversed (further analysis of the impact on inequalities is included in the More Equal Wales chapter).
A worrying feature of the labour market in recent years is the big increase in economic inactivity among people of working age owing to ill health. The APS reports that 26,100 more people of working age were economically inactive in Wales because of long term sickness in the year to March 2024 compared with the year to March 2020. This is an increase of approximately 20%. The APS reports there were 358,200 more people inactive due to ill-health across the UK, an increase of 17%.
Figure 1.4: Employment rate for people aged 16 to 64, year ending March 2005 to March 2024
Description of Figure 1.4: A line chart showing the employment rate for those aged 16 to 64 has generally increased since the year ending March 2011 in both Wales and the UK. Over the last four years (since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic) the rate has been more volatile for Wales. The UK rate has remained higher than the Wales rate since the year ending March 2005.
Source: APS, ONS
Note: Chart axis does not start at zero.
Figure 1.5: Economic inactivity rate (excluding students) for people aged 16 to 64, year ending March 2005 to March 2024
Description of Figure 1.5: A line chart showing the economic inactivity rate (excluding students) has steadily decreased since the year ending March 2005 in both Wales and the UK, however over the last four years (since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic) the rate has increased for both. The Welsh rate has always been higher than the UK rate, with the size of the gap fluctuating over time.
Source: APS, ONS
Note: Chart axis does not start at zero.
Participation in education and the labour market
A national milestone on participation in education and the labour market was set in 2021 which is that at least 90% of 16 to 24 year olds will be in education, employment or training by 2050.
Provisional estimates for 2022 show that 85.8% of 16 to 24 year olds were in education, employment or training, up from 83.7% in 2021. The increase was largely driven by an increase in the employment for 16 to 18 year olds.
Using the main measure of young people in education, employment or training, there was an increase in both the 16 to 18 and 19 to 24 age groups between 2021 and 2022, with the overall increase for those aged 16 to 18 (0.9 percentage points) being smaller than the overall increase for those aged 19 to 24 (2.7 percentage points). For 16 to 18 year olds, this followed a period where the proportion remained stable at around 89-90% between 2012 and 2018.
Figure 1.6: Percentage of young people in Wales in education, employment or training, 2004 to 2022
Description of Figure 1.6: A line chart showing that the percentage of young people in Wales aged 16 to 18 years in education, employment or training has remained relatively steady since 2004, whilst the percentage of those aged 19 to 24 years fell below 80% between 2009 and 2014 but has since recovered to 85.4% in 2022.
Source: Participation of young people in education and the labour market, Welsh Government
Note: Chart axis does not start at zero.
(p): Figures for 2022 are provisional.
Fair work and earnings
A national indicator on the proportion of employees whose pay is set by collective bargaining was introduced in December 2021, based on data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). Some 52% of employee jobs were covered by collective bargaining arrangements in 2023, where pay and conditions are negotiated between an employer and a trade union. This has remained steady since 2022 but is lower than in many previous years. However it is considerably higher than the majority of the other UK countries and England regions and reflects the relatively higher share of employees in Wales who work in the public sector and in manufacturing.
The national indicator on fair work and earnings considers the percentage of people in employment, who are on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts, and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn at least the real living wage. The real living wage is calculated by the Living Wage Foundation who determine the methodology. It aims to reflect the cost of living.
In 2023, 64% of those people on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts, and not seeking permanent employment) earned at least the real living wage, reduced from 68% in 2022 and lower than at any time in the last decade. This is based on the real living wage for 2023-24 as published in October 2023.
Figure 1.7: Percentage of people in employment, who are on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts, and not seeking permanent employment) and who earn at least the real living wage, 2012 to 2023
Description of Figure 1.7: A line chart showing that the number of people in employment earning at least the real living wage in Wales has fallen to 64% in 2023, after fluctuating between 65% and 70% between 2012 and 2022.
Source: Welsh Government analysis of the APS
Data from the National Survey for Wales suggests that the percentage of people satisfied with their job remains broadly unchanged, standing at 83% in 2022-23. Job satisfaction tends to increase with age.
A national milestone has been set to eliminate the pay gap for gender, disability and ethnicity by 2050. Over the long-term, the gender pay gap (on a median hourly full-time basis and excluding overtime) has narrowed. In April 2023, the (full-time) gender pay gap was 5.6%, unchanged from the previous year. The gap slightly widened in the UK to 7.7%.
The gender pay gap for all employees remains considerably higher at 11.8%. This is because women fill more part-time jobs, which in comparison with full-time jobs have lower hourly median pay.
These gaps do not take into account differences in education levels and experience, which vary across genders and affect earning levels.
Figure 1.8: Percentage difference in median hourly full-time earnings between men and women, 1999 to 2023 [Note 1]
Description of Figure 1.8: A line chart showing that the difference in median hourly full-time earnings between men and women has decreased over the last 20 years for both Wales and the UK. Wales has had a narrower gender pay gap than the UK since 2013.
Source: Welsh Government Analysis of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS
[Note 1] A pay difference greater than zero means men’s earnings are higher than women’s.
In the year ending December 2023, the disability pay difference in Wales was £1.75 an hour (or 12.2%). This means that disabled employees in Wales earned, on average £1.75 less per hour than non-disabled employees. The pay difference has widened by £0.43 (2.5 percentage points) compared to the previous year. Since 2019, the value of the disability pay difference has seen a very slight decrease (of £0.01), however due to higher hourly wages for both disabled and non-disabled employees as a percentage the pay difference decreased by 2.9 percentage points.
In the year ending December 2023, the ethnicity pay difference in Wales was £1.93 an hour (or 13.8%). This means that Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees in Wales earned, on average £1.93 less per hour than White employees. The pay difference has narrowed by £0.30 (3.0 percentage points) compared to the previous year, which has been caused by an increase of £1.02 in average hourly earnings for Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees compared to an increase of £0.72 for White employees.
Disability and ethnicity pay differences are based on median hourly earnings for all employees.
It is worth noting that due to the high volatility in the data for the ethnicity pay difference in Wales, short-term changes should be considered alongside longer-term trends where possible. Since 2019, the ethnicity pay difference has seen an overall increase where average hourly earnings for White employees have increased by 23.5% whereas average hourly earnings for Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic employees have increased by 8.0%.
Poverty and deprivation
Relative income poverty
People living in relative income poverty are those who live in a household where the total household income from all sources is less than 60% of the average UK household income (as given by the median).
For regions and countries of the UK, the latest data point published is for the period between 2020-21 and 2022-23. Estimates do not include 2020-21 survey data in calculations, as data for that year is judged to be of too low quality, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on survey fieldwork.
Between 2020-21 and 2022-23, 21% of all people in Wales were living in relative income poverty (after housing costs were paid).
The percentage of people living in relative income poverty has been relatively stable in Wales for over 18 years, with children more likely to be in relative income poverty than the population overall. Although rates of people living in relative income poverty in Wales increased for children and decreased for pensioners in the most recent period, none of the changes were statistically significant.
Figure 1.9: Percentage of each age group in Wales living in relative income poverty (after housing costs), three-financial-year averages [Note 1]
Description of Figure 1.9: A line chart showing people in Wales living in relative income poverty (after housing costs were paid) from 1997 onwards. The percentage of people living in relative income poverty has been relatively stable in Wales for over 18 years, with children more likely to be in relative income poverty than the population overall.
Source: Welsh Government Analysis of the DWP's Households below average income dataset, based on the Family Resource Survey
[Note 1] Estimates for periods which span 2020-21 do not include the data collected during 2020-21 in calculations. For the latest three periods shown, estimates formerly calculated as 3 year rolling averages are based on 2 year rolling averages that omit the 2020-21 survey data. 2020-21 estimates are unreliable as they are based on data collected during the first year of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, when lockdown rules severely disrupted the data collection.
A person is considered to be in persistent poverty if they are in relative income poverty in at least 3 out of 4 consecutive years. Data from the Understanding Society survey shows that an individual in Wales had a 12% likelihood of being in persistent poverty between 2018 and 2022 (after housing costs were paid). A child in Wales had a higher likelihood of being in persistent poverty at 18%.
Material deprivation
Material deprivation is a measure of living standards, and a person is defined to be living in material deprivation if they are not able to access a certain number of goods and services.
The continuation of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions into 2021-22 affected the measurement of material deprivation. The restrictions that remained in place affected people’s access to some social opportunities or services, regardless of deprivation or financial constraint. In addition, changes in the way National Survey for Wales data is collected since the pandemic affects comparability with earlier data.
In the years prior to the pandemic, the percentage of working-age adults in material deprivation reduced from 19% in 2017-18 to 16% in 2019-20. There was also a decrease in material deprivation among pensioners (from 7% to 4% in the period).
More recently, between 2021-22 and 2022-23 levels of material deprivation rose for working-age adults (to 19%) and, to a lesser extent, for pensioners (to 5%).
In 2022-23, 25% of people who had children in their household were in material deprivation, compared with 11% of people in child-free households. However, a lower proportion of parents had children who were experiencing material deprivation themselves (9%). This was an increase from when last measured in 2019-20, when 6% of parents had children who were experiencing material deprivation.
Figure 1.10: Percentage of people in material deprivation (in Wales, financial years 2016-17 to 2022-23 [Note 1] [Note 2]
Description of Figure 1.10: A line graph showing that the proportion of working-age adults and pensioners who were materially deprived both fell prior to the pandemic whilst the trend for children was relatively stable. The proportion for each of these groups has risen again in 2022-23.
Source: National Survey for Wales
[Note 1] Material deprivation data was not collected for the 2020-21 survey year.
[Note 2] For 2021-22 and 2022-23, material deprivation statistics are not strictly comparable with the pre-pandemic period. The National Survey transitioned from a face-to-face to telephone based survey, which may have influenced respondents answering of the material deprivation questions
In the previous Well-being of Wales reports we have reported on data from a different source, the Family Resources Survey, which estimates the percentage of working age adults and children in low-income households which were materially deprived.
Income spent on housing costs
The national indicator on the percentage of households spending 30% or more of income on housing costs is based on data from the DWP Family Resources Survey. Data collection for the Family Resources Survey was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020-21 so survey data for that year is not included in the calculations for the three most recent periods as it is judged to be of low quality.
For the latest period for which sufficient data is available (financial years 2021-22 to 2022-23), 15% of households spent 30% or more of their income on housing costs, but this varies by housing tenure. This percentage had been fairly consistent at around 19% since the period 2011-12 to 2013-14. It is unclear whether this apparent fall represents a statistically significant change. However, there are indications that during the most recent period the income element of the indicator includes increases in state support (for example fuel support payments, Cost of Living support scheme payments). In addition, many households in the period on fixed rate mortgages may not yet have been impacted by increases seen in the mortgage interest rates following increases in the Bank of England base rate from autumn 2022.
Note that this indicator does not include household energy costs which rose throughout 2022-23 and will have had a wider impact on households.
In the period to 2021-22 to 2022-23, only 3% of households who own their own home outright and 9% of those who own a home with a mortgage spent 30% or more of their income on housing cost. Percentages are higher for the other two tenures: 35% for private rented households, 36% of those in social rented housing.
Qualifications
The qualification profile of the Welsh working age population has been improving over time, though there is a break in the series between 2021 and 2022 due to changes to the questions on qualifications in the APS, which now reflect the current qualifications framework.
Skills and qualifications are the biggest single influence on people’s chance of being in employment and on their incomes.
In 2023, 45.0% of working age adults (aged 18 to 64 years) were qualified to at least higher education level (level 4), up from 43.3% in 2022.The proportion of the working age population with at least higher education qualifications has increased considerably in the last 15 years; rising by nearly 14 percentage points in the period from 2008 to 2021.
One of the national milestones on qualifications is that 75% of working age adults in Wales will be qualified to level 3 or higher by 2050. In 2023, 67.4% of working age adults in Wales were qualified to level 3 or higher.
Between 2008 and 2021, there were large falls in the share of working age adults with no qualifications. This proportion stood at 7.9% in 2023. The proportion of working age adults qualified to at least level 2 (equivalent to 5+ GCSEs at grade A* to C) stood at 87.4% in 2023.
Older adults are more likely to have no qualifications than younger adults.
There are higher proportions of males than females with no qualifications in age groups up to and including 35 to 49 year olds. Females are more likely to hold qualifications at or above level 4.
Figure 1.11: Highest level of qualification held by adults of working age, 2008 to 2023 [Note 1]
Description of Figure 1.11: Qualification levels in Wales have steadily increased since 2008, though there is a break in the series between 2021 and 2022 due to comparability issues.
Source: Welsh Government Analysis of APS, ONS
[Note 1] Estimates for 2022 onwards cannot be compared to previous years following changes to the questions on qualifications in the APS.
The other national milestone on qualifications is that the percentage of working age adults with no qualifications will be 5% or below in every local authority in Wales by 2050. In 2023, five of Wales’s 22 local authorities have 5% or less of working age adults with no qualifications – the Vale of Glamorgan (2.5%), Monmouthshire (3.0%), Isle of Anglesey (3.2%), Gwynedd (3.3%) and Powys (3.4%). The proportion of working age adults with no qualifications was highest in Blaenau Gwent (16.6%) and Merthyr Tydfil (14.1%).
Figure 1.12: Proportion of working age population with no qualification by local authority, 2023
Description of Figure 1.12: A bar chart showing the proportion of the working age population with no qualifications in each local authority in 2023. The proportion is less than 5% in the Vale of Glamorgan, Monmouthshire, Isle of Anglesey, Gwynedd and Powys, but is over 15% in Blaenau Gwent.
Source: Welsh Government Analysis of APS, ONS
Attainment in schools
Attainment in schools rose in the years prior to the pandemic, however public examinations (such as GCSE and A Levels) were disrupted, particularly in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In those years all grades that would have been awarded following an examination were replaced with the centre assessed or determined grades. 2021/22 was a transitionary year in which pupils sat written exams with some adjustments. Further details on these arrangements can be found in our annual Examination results publication.
Data for the 2022/23 school year, which saw a further transition back to pre-pandemic assessment arrangements (whilst keeping some support in place for learners) shows some continuing improvement compared to pre-pandemic years. However, children from deprived backgrounds still have poorer outcomes.
In 2022/23 the average capped 9 indicator (interim measures version) was 358.1 points, a small increase from 354.4 points in 2018/19. In 2022/23 pupils eligible for free school meals (FSM) scored 296.7 points and pupils not eligible for FSM scored 383.8 points on average in the “capped 9” indicator (interim measures version). This means that pupils not eligible score higher than pupils by 87.1 points. This is an increase in the gap from 77.3 points in 2018/19, the last time the capped 9 indicator (interim measures version) was reported on.
From 2018/19, when written exams were last sat, to 2022/23 the percentage of entries awarded A* to A and A* to C grades at GCSE have increased. In this period the percentage of A* to A grades increased from 19.5% to 22.2%. However, this is a decrease of 3.7 percentage points compared to the results obtained in 2021/22, when qualifications returned to being awarded based on written examinations for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. A similar pattern was seen at the A* to C grade range.
There remains a gap in educational outcomes of children in school eligible for free school meals and those who are not. The gap in entries achieving A* to A grades at GCSE has widened in the last eight years, whilst the gap in entries achieving A* to C grades has been more stable. Data up to 2019 from national curriculum teacher assessments indicated that the gap in educational outcomes widened as pupils got older. With the introduction of the new Curriculum for Wales this data is no longer collected.
In 2022/23 the gap between pupils not eligible for FSM and pupils eligible for FSM awarded grades A* to C widened to 29.8 percentage points, returning to a gap similar in size to the years leading up to the pandemic after a fall to 24.7 percentage points in 2019/20.
Figure 1.13: Gap between percentages of pupils eligible for FSM and pupils not eligible for FSM achieving A*-A, A*-C and A*-G at GSCE, 2015/16 to 2022/23 [Note 1]
Description of Figure 1.13: A line chart showing the gap between percentages of students eligible for free school meals and students not eligible for free school meals achieving A*-A, A*-C, and A*-G at GCSE from 2015/16 to 2022/23. Between 2020/21 and 2022/23, the gap increased for the A*-C and A*G grade ranges but decreased for A*-A.
Source: Examination Results, Welsh Government
Greenhouse gas emissions from industry and the energy supply sectors
Managing the interaction between economic growth and an innovative, low carbon economy is complex and poses challenges, but greenhouse gas emissions from industry and a number of other key business sectors remain much lower than in the 1990s.
The Prosperous Wales chapter previously reported on greenhouse gas emissions from business. Because of changes to sector definitions the chapter now reports on emissions from industry and the energy supply sector (electricity supply and fuel supply).
Overall, greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by 36% since the base year (1990). Emissions from industry and the electricity and fuel supply sectors accounted for over half of Welsh territorial emissions (55%) in 2022. Emissions from these sectors have decreased by 40% since 1990 with the largest reduction in the fuel supply sector (48% reduction).
Figure 1.14: Greenhouse gas emissions from industry and the energy supply sectors, 1990 to 2022 [Note 1] [Note 2]
Description of Figure 1.14: A line chart showing the volume of territorial greenhouse gas emissions (megatonnes) from sectors related to business between 1990 and 2022. Emissions from the industry and electricity supply sectors have been volatile although have both decreased since 1990. Emissions from the fuel supply sector have generally decreased smoothly between 1990 and 2022.
Source: Welsh Government Analysis of National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
[Note 1] Annual estimates available from 1998. Prior to that estimates available for 1990 and 1995.
[Note 2] The sector definition of the greenhouse gas inventory varies from both the Low Carbon Delivery Plan (Carbon Budget period 1, 2016-2020) and the Net Zero Wales Plan (Carbon Budget Period 2, 2021-2025).
Mode of travel
Some forms of travel, including road traffic, make a substantial contribution to carbon emissions. There is no evidence of a shift away from cars as the main method of travel in Wales.
Compared to 2021-22, local bus journeys increased by 16% in 2022-23, however, this represents a 33% decrease in passenger journeys compared to 2019-20 (pre-pandemic levels). The journeys in 2022-23 covered a total of 84.0 million vehicle kilometres, similar to the previous year.
As of 2023, data from Great Britain indicates that traffic levels and public transport usage are recovering following the pandemic. However, both overall traffic volume and bus traffic volume remain below pre-pandemic levels, with traffic volume 3% lower than 2019 levels and the volume of bus traffic 17% lower than 2019 levels.
As in most other parts of the UK outside London, private road transport remains the dominant mode of travel and accounts for the overwhelming majority of commuting journeys in Wales. In 2022, 79% of commuters in Wales used a car as their usual method of travel to work, slightly lower than prior to the pandemic. There has been little change to the proportions of Welsh residents that usually use each mode of travel to get to work over the last decade.
Figure 1.15: Usual mode of travel to work by Welsh residents, 2022 [Note 1] [Note 2]
Description of Figure 1.15: A pie chart showing that the majority (79%) of Welsh residents travelled to work by car in 2022.11% of residents walked, with 5% using a bus or coach, and 2% using rail services.
Source: Transport Statistics Great Britain: Usual method of travel to work by region of residence
[Note 1] Respondents were asked what their usual method of travel was
[Note 2] Categories that have been supressed due to low quality have been included in the “Other” category.
There has been a considerable increase in the number of newly registered ultra-low emission vehicles in Wales in recent years. In 2023, there were over 9,000 newly registered ultra-low emission vehicles, a 12% increase compared to the previous year.
At the end of 2023, there were nearly 34,000 licensed ultra-low emission vehicles registered in Wales, which represents 1.7% of all licensed vehicles. Over time, reducing reliance on petrol and diesel vehicles and increasing the use of ultra-low emission vehicles could help lower emissions.
Further reading
Previous versions of the Wellbeing of Wales report included further analysis of:
- fuel poverty
- assessments of stage of development of 4 year old pupils in mathematics, language, literacy and communication related to the Foundation Phase Framework. This information is no longer captured due to the roll-out of the new Curriculum for Wales from September 2022.
- Survey respondents responses about environmental behaviours they may be taking as part of everyday life including information on cutting down on travelling by plane or car. Inflation and cost of living for household groups, UK (ONS) provides information on the impact of inflation on different types of households.
Labour market overview, provides a monthly update on the Welsh labour market.
The Welsh economy in numbers dashboard shows trends in the key economic outcomes for Wales, compared to the UK.
The Chief Economist Report and Fiscal Prospects reviews recent economic developments and the economic and fiscal prospects facing Wales.
Transport Statistics Great Britain (Department of Transport) is an annual compendium of transport statistics, including data for Wales on a number of topics.
Data is also available from the Census of Population on highest qualification levels. Census in Education in Wales (Census 2021) provides a summary of the data for Wales. The statistics available from the Census are not directly comparable to those presented in this Wellbeing of Wales report. As well as the different data collection modes, these statistics are based on working age adults (aged 18 to 64) whereas those from the Census are based on all usual residents aged 16 and over.
Information on the awarding of grades for school and college qualifications (GCSE, A Level, AS, Skills Challenge Certificate and Welsh Baccalaureate) in the years impacted by COVID-19 is available in the statements below:
Data sources
The following data sources were used in this narrative.
Economic performance
Regional gross value added (balanced) per head and income components (ONS)
Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK: July 2022 (ONS)
UK Innovation Survey statistics (Department for Business and Trade)
United Kingdom innovation survey 2023: report (Department for Business and Trade)
Household income
Gross disposable household income (ONS)
Regional gross disposable household income, UK statistical bulletins (ONS)
Labour market
Labour market statistics (APS)
Regional labour market statistics in the UK Statistical bulletins (ONS)
Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted (ONS)
Participation in education and the labour market
Participation of young people in education and the labour market
Fair work and earnings
Calculate the Real Living Wage (Living Wage Foundation)
Percentage of people moderately or very satisfied with their jobs by age (StatsWales)
Annual survey of hours and earnings: 2023
Poverty
Qualifications
Highest qualification levels of working age adults by year and qualification
Education
Academic achievement of pupils in Foundation Phase baseline assessment and at Key Stage 3, 2022
Examination results: September 2022 to August 2023
Businesses
Emissions of greenhouse gases by year (StatsWales)
Travel
Transport Statistics: Great Britain (Department for Transport)
Road traffic statistics - Summary statistics (Department for Transport)
Public service vehicles (buses and taxis)
Ultra-low emission vehicle statistics (Department for Transport)
Student Health and Wellbeing Survey 2021/22 (School Health Research Network)