Wellbeing of Wales, 2024 - A resilient Wales
The report helps us assess whether we are making progress against the 7 national wellbeing goals.
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The goal for a resilient Wales
Author: Luned Jones
A resilient Wales: a nation which maintains and enhances a bio-diverse natural environment with healthy functioning ecosystems that support social, economic and ecological resilience and the capacity to adapt to change (for example, climate change).
What have we learnt from the data in the last year?
Many of the national indicators used to measure progress towards this goal are long-term indicators that measure gradual change. These indicators are therefore updated periodically rather than annually. From those national indicators updated within the last year:
- the national indicator on soil carbon for 2021-23, shows that the concentration of carbon in our topsoil is generally stable, apart from in arable land and broadleaf woodland where a loss of carbon in topsoil has been observed relative to concentrations in 2013-16
- nearly 49,000 properties in Wales were at high or medium risk of flooding from rivers and over 79,000 properties at high or medium risk of tidal flooding in 2024; of these, nearly 25,000 benefit from river flood defences, nearly 42,000 from tidal flood defences and nearly 35,000 benefit from river and sea flood defences
- average concentrations to which people are exposed, of particulate matter, remained broadly similar between 2021 and 2022 and average concentrations for nitrogen dioxide increased slightly between 2021 and 2022, but remained lower than prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic; however, it should be noted that annual variations can be due to a number of factors including the weather
- after an increase during the COVID-19 pandemic, the amount of household waste generated, but not recycled per person decreased
- the installation rate for electrical capacity in 2022 was the second lowest in the last decade, but the installation rate for heat capacity was at its highest rate since 2018
What is the longer term progress towards the goal?
Data for some of the national indicators suggest that progress is being made towards the resilient Wales goal, but some of this progress has slowed recently, and further improvements are needed in order to reach the goal and national milestones.
Our global footprint is the total environmental burden that society places on the planet. The national milestone for the global footprint indicator is that Wales will only use its fair share of the world’s resources by 2050. Estimates produced by JNCC and the Global Footprint Network in 2023 suggest that the global footprint per person reduced by nearly a third between 2004 and 2018. However, this remains over twice the estimated biocapacity of Wales. If the entire world population lived like the citizens of Wales, humanity would require 2.08 Earths. Further analysis of the global footprint is included in the A Globally Responsible Wales chapter.
The latest comprehensive assessment of Wales’s management of natural resources (SoNaRR 2020) shows that overall, biological diversity is declining. The national indicator on the status of biological diversity in Wales, published in 2021, showed that the distribution of species has decreased over the long term, mirroring the global picture of declining biological diversity. The 2023 State of Nature Report states that one in six of our species are at risk of extinction from Wales, including plants and animals.
Air quality has improved greatly since the 1970s, but remains a risk to human health and nature.
Wales has seen decreases in waste generation and considerable improvements in the recycling rate, but we continue to use up resources faster than they can be replenished.
Installed electrical capacity from renewable energy continues to increase but at a considerably slower pace than in recent years. The installation rate for heat capacity has increased.
SoNaRR 2020 provides a comprehensive assessment of progress against the four aims of the sustainable management of natural resources.
Biodiversity and habitats
The national milestone on biodiversity is to reverse the decline in biodiversity with an improvement in the status of species and ecosystems by 2030 and their clear recovery by 2050.
An experimental indicator on the status of biological diversity in Wales published in 2021 showed that the distribution of species in Wales has declined over the long term but has been stable more recently. Although there have been improvements in the status of populations of some species in Wales, SoNaRR 2020 shows that, overall, biodiversity is declining. Further analysis on this topic is available in the Wellbeing of Wales report 2021.
In addition to the national indicator on biodiversity, there are schemes in place which monitor specific species. The UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme is a long-term monitoring scheme. Data for 2022 shows that trends for UK butterfly species vary, with about a third of butterfly species assessed in the UK showing a significant long-term decline in abundance (33%), and the same showing a significant long-term increase. Short-term (10 year) trends show 5 species (9%) showing a statistically significant increase and 4 species (7%) showing a significant decline. In Wales, out of the species with sufficient data to be assessed, there are both long- and short-term declines in several species but it is encouraging that nine species are showing a long-term increase.
Key drivers responsible for long-term declines in abundance include changes in the extent, condition and fragmentation of habitats caused by the intensification of farming, changes in forestry practices, urban development, pollution and climate change. Some drivers, such as climate change, are likely to have mixed, species-dependent impacts.
Most habitat types have seen a reduction in diversity over the last 100 years, with the rate of decline increasing from the 1970s onwards. In the 2019 Wellbeing of Wales report we reported that 31% of our land was considered semi-natural. This national indicator is used to assess the proportion of our land that has semi-natural, less modified habitats as these are most likely to form healthy and resilient ecosystems.
Additional information from NRW’s condition assessments for marine Special Areas of Conservation and Special Protection Areas in Wales and the Terrestrial and Freshwater Protected sites baseline assessment were included in the Wellbeing of Wales report 2022.
Well managed soil will safeguard food production, support habitats, help manage flood risk and reduce water treatment costs. The national indicator on soil carbon for 2021-23, shows that the concentration of carbon in our topsoil is generally stable, apart from in arable land and broadleaf woodland where a loss of carbon in topsoil has been observed relative to concentrations in 2013-16.
Water and flood risk
The quality of our water whether in seas, rivers, streams or the ground is generally improving.
Water is one of Wales’s natural resources which we rely on constantly including for drinking water, the economy, industry, sewage treatment and agriculture. In 2023-24 Welsh Water and Hafren Dyfrdwy provided around 900 megalitres per day (Ml/d) of potable water to meet demand, with higher demand experienced during peak periods such as during hot dry weather or tourism hot spots. Private water supplies (not on mains) are estimated as 13.8 Ml/d.
There is no new data this year for the national indicator on status of surface and ground water bodies. Latest data, relating to 2021, indicates that 40% of 933 surface and ground water bodies were at good or better status. This represents a 3 percentage point increase from that reported in 2015 and an 8 percentage point improvement since 2009. A further update is expected in the autumn of 2024.
Water quality compliance assessments for the nine Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) rivers in Wales have reviewed monitoring data against new targets for phosphorus and wider indicators of pollution. In relation to phosphorus, 107 water bodies were assessed, 39% passed the new targets and 61% failed. Phosphorus failures were found in five of the SAC rivers, and wider water quality failures were identified in seven of the SAC rivers.
Good quality bathing waters are very important for coastal communities, visitors and the economy in Wales. Bathing water quality was monitored at 109 designated sites around Wales’s coast in 2023. 107 bathing waters met the standards set by the Bathing Water Regulations. 80 were classified as excellent, 20 achieved good and 7 were classified as the minimum, sufficient, standard. 2 bathing waters failed to achieve the standard and were assessed as poor. Typically, the classifications are based on 4-years of bathing water quality data.
Figure 2.1: Bathing water quality, percentage of designated sites, 2023
Description of Figure 2.1: A pie chart showing bathing water quality for designated sites in Wales in 2023. 73% were classed as excellent, 18% as good, 6% as sufficient and 2% as poor.
Source: NRW Bathing Water Quality Report 2023
The latest flood risk assessment shows that some homes in Wales are at risk of flooding from seas, rivers and surface water, with some properties at risk from more than one type of flooding. In 2024, 1 in 7 (273,000) residential and non-residential properties are at either low, medium or high risk of flooding. In terms of the national indicator on flooding, nearly 49,000 properties in Wales were at high or medium risk of flooding from rivers and over 79,000 properties at high or medium risk of tidal flooding. Of these, nearly 25,000 benefit from river flood defences, nearly 42,000 from tidal flood defences and nearly 35,000 benefit from river and sea flood defences. It’s currently not possible to consider trends over time due to changes in methodology.
Air quality
Air quality has improved greatly since the 1970s, but remains a risk to human health.
The national indicator on nitrogen dioxide (NO2) shows that overall, the average concentration levels to which people are exposed have been declining over the past decade. After a period of relative stability between 2017 and 2019 (at around 9 µg/m3), the average concentration decreased to 7 µg/m3 in 2020 and 2021 and increased slightly to 8 µg/m3 in 2022. Average concentrations to which people are exposed of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) remained broadly stable between 2021 and 2022. Whilst the data used to underpin the indicators is based on modelled data spanning the entirety of the UK, measurement data from the UK’s air quality monitoring networks further illustrates the UK wide trends in reduced concentrations of NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 between 2022 and 2023
The highest concentrations of nitrogen dioxide emissions are found in urban areas and near busy roads, reflecting the contribution of traffic and urban activities to poor air quality.
Air pollution has a significant effect on public health. There are currently 44 air quality management areas declared in Wales. One was designated due to the risk of PM10 particulate matter levels exceeding the daily 24-hour mean air quality objective for PM10, and the remainder designated where levels of NO2 exceed or risk exceeding the air quality objectives for NO2.
In 2022, the UK Health Security Agency reported that the mortality burden attributed to long term outdoor air pollution in the UK, using 2019 data, has ‘an effect equivalent to’ between 29,000 and 43,000 deaths per year. This was amongst adults aged 30 years and over. The estimate for Wales is ‘an effect equivalent to’ 1,200 to 2,000 deaths amongst those aged 30 years and over. It is important to note these are not actual deaths; the estimate relates to air pollution being regarded as contributing to mortality based on evidence that shows air pollution reduces life expectancy for everyone.
Figure 2.2: Air quality indicators, 2007 to 2022
Description of Figure 2.2: A line chart showing a general improvement in air quality indicators over the period 2007 to 2022.
Source: Air Quality Emissions Indicators
Waste and recycling
Wales has made considerable progress in managing waste over the last decade by increasing the amount sent for recycling, and reducing the amount sent for disposal. Wales is a world leader in household recycling, but we continue to use up resources faster than they can be replenished.
- household waste
- industrial and commercial waste
- construction and demolition waste
Whilst the industrial and commercial, and the construction and demolition waste components are measured periodically through surveys, more regular and up-to-date data is available on household waste.
The amount of household waste generated, but not recycled per person has generally decreased over the last decade, with some fluctuation in 2019-20 and 2020-21 likely due to COVID-19. In 2022-23, on average 172kg of household waste generated was not recycled per person.
The recycling rate (i.e. the percentage of local authority municipal waste that was reused, recycled or composted) has increased considerably during the last two decades – from around 5% in the late 1990s to nearly two-thirds (65.7%) in 2022-23.
Figure 2.3: Percentage of local authority municipal waste reused/recycled/composted, 2012-13 to 2022-23
Description of Figure 2.3: A line chart showing that the percentage of municipal waste reused/recycled/composted in Wales generally increased from 52.3% in 2012-13 to 65.7% in 2021-22.
Source: Local Authority Municipal Waste
Renewable energy generation
Around 27% of electricity generated in Wales was from renewable sources in 2022, down from 33% in 2020 due to the significant increase in generation from non-renewable sources. The equivalent percentage of Welsh electricity consumption met by renewable electricity generation increased from 55% in 2021 to 59% in 2022. This was mainly driven by a fall in electricity consumption.
The national indicator on renewable energy relates to renewable energy generation capacity. The vast majority of renewable energy capacity in Wales is electrical capacity – with 18% of total installed renewable capacity providing heat.
The capacity of renewable energy projects in Wales (electricity and heat) has increased considerably over the last decade, though progress has slowed in recent years. At the end of 2022, the installed electrical capacity for renewable energy was 3,551 megawatts (MW), slightly higher than the previous year and more than twice the capacity in 2012. At the end of 2022, the total renewable heat capacity in Wales was 798 MW, 8% more than the previous year and nearly 14 times the heat capacity in 2012. The installation rate for electrical capacity in 2022 was the second lowest in the last decade, but the installation rate for heat capacity was at its highest rate since 2018.
Wales remains a net exporter of electricity, generating over twice as much electricity as it consumes on an annual basis.
Figure 2.4: Renewable energy generation capacity, 2012 to 2022
Description of Figure 2.4: A line chart showing an overall considerable increase in both renewable electrical and heat capacity in Wales between 2012 and 2022, with the increase slowing in recent years.
Source: Energy Generation in Wales report
The national milestone on dwelling energy performance is that all homes in Wales will have adequate and cost-effective energy performance by 2050. According to the Welsh Housing Conditions Survey, 2017-18, 47% of residential dwellings were considered to have adequate energy performance (a SAP rating of 65 or above).
Further reading
Previous versions of the Wellbeing of Wales report include further analysis of:
- flooding
- semi-natural habitats
- biodiversity
- green spaces
- quality of soil
- energy efficiency of homes
State of Natural Resources Report 2020 (Natural Resources Wales) provides a comprehensive assessment of the extent to which natural resources are being sustainably managed.
National Survey for Wales provides data on people’s views on environmental issues.
Wales Environmental Information Portal (Natural Resources Wales)
State of Nature report for Wales (State of Nature Partnership)
Data sources
Global footprint
Understanding the Global Environmental Footprint and Impacts of Welsh Consumption (JNCC)
Biodiversity and habitat
State of Natural Resources report (Natural Resources Wales)
ERAMMP report: development of Indicator-44 (Status of Biological Diversity in Wales) (ERAMMP)
UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS)
Breeding Bird Survey (British Trust for Ornithology)
Summary of Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP) results
Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme (ERAMMP)
Water
State of Natural Resources Report (Natural Resources Wales)
River Basin Management Plans, 2021 - 2027 (Natural Resources Wales)
Compliance Assessment of Welsh River SACs Against Phosphorus Targets (Natural Resources Wales)
Assessment of water quality in protected rivers in Wales (Natural Resources Wales)
Wales Bathing Water Report (Natural Resources Wales)
Flood Risk Assessment Wales (Natural Resources Wales)
Air quality
Air quality average concentration indicators (StatsWales)
Air Quality Statistics in the UK (DeFRA)
Air quality management areas (Air Quality Wales)
Chemical hazards and poisons report: issue 28 (UK Health Security Agency)
Recycling and resource use
Local authority municipal waste (StatsWales)
UK Statistics on waste (DeFRA)
Survey of Industrial and Commercial Waste Generated in Wales 2018 (Natural Resources Wales)
2019 Wales Construction & Demolition Waste Arisings Survey (Natural Resources Wales)
Energy
Low carbon energy generation data (StatsWales)