Estimates of housing need (national and regional level): 2018-based

Estimates of housing need are key to future planning at a national and regional level and will be used to inform the National Development Framework and housing policy development.

Limitations

These estimates:

• DO provide a range of need for additional housing units based on past trends and best available data
• DO form a basis of discussion for policy decisions
• CANNOT forecast exactly what is going to happen in the future
• SHOULD NOT be used as a housing target in Wales
• DO NOT attempt to estimate the number of households in unsuitable accommodation.

Methodology

Figures relate to the need for additional housing units and are based on:

• estimates of existing unmet need
• newly arising need (2014-based household projections). Household projections are not forecasts, they are based purely on past trends and assume these trends continue into the future. In particular, such projections do not attempt to account for the effect of future policies (for example, policies which might seek to influence population movement) and events.

Key results

• The range of estimates naturally become wider the further into the future they go, reflecting the uncertainty of these estimates.
• It is estimated that on average, between 6,700 and 9,700 additional housing units will be required annually in Wales during 2018-19 to 2022-23 (with a central estimate of 8,300).
• The estimates of additional housing need gradually decreases over the following 15 years, reflecting a slow down in the projected household growth in the 2014-based household projections (which are largely driven by population projections).
• By the mid 2030s, it is estimated that up to 6,500 additional housing units will be required annually in Wales (with a central estimate of below 4,000).