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The 2018-based projections provide statistics on the potential future size and age structure of the population of the UK and its constituent countries.

Main points

  • The population of Wales is projected to increase by 2.7% to 3.22 million by 2028, and by 3.7% to 3.26 million by 2043.
  • The number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 4.7% to 536,300 between 2018 and 2028.
  • The number of people aged 16-64 is projected to increase by 0.2% to 1,927,700 between 2018 and 2028.
  • The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 16.3% to 758,600 between 2018 and 2028.
  • The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 29.3% to 378,100 between 2018 and 2028.

Revision note

On Monday 18 May 2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) issued a notice on its website informing users that they had identified an error affecting the 2018-based national population projections.

The error was caused by incorrect processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England, resulting in the projected mid-2028 population for Wales being approximately 65,000 too low, and that for England being approximately 65,000 too high.

The ONS published corrected national population projections for Wales on Thursday 11 June.

The corrected projections are showing a different longer-term trend for Wales compared with the projections published originally. The original projections were showing a projected decrease in Wales’ population from 2025 onwards.

Revised StatsWales tables will be published as soon as possible.

Reports

Contact

Martin Parry

Telephone: 0300 025 0373

Media

Telephone: 0300 025 8099

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