Land Transaction Tax statistics: January to March 2021

We present these statistics on LTT transactions that we (the WRA) have received by 19 April 2021.

Figure 1.1 below shows:

• quarterly estimates for January to March 2021
   
• the percentage change against previous estimates for January to March 2020 (made in April 2020)

We explain why these comparisons are made in section 1 of this release (‘Comparisons with the same period a year earlier’).

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LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales

Since April 2020, coronavirus (COVID-19) had an impact on the number of property transactions and tax due. This is the case for both residential and non-residential transactions.

Comparing January to March 2021 on a like-for like basis with the same three-month period in 2020:

• residential transactions and tax due on those transactions increased by 26% and 54% respectively
   
• higher rates transactions rose by 13%
   
• non-residential transactions fell slightly, down 2%. Tax due from non-residential transactions increased by 25%

Part of the reason for the increases in residential transactions is a recovery in activity following the reductions in the earlier part of the year due to coronavirus (COVID-19). During January to March 2021, a record number of transactions occurred, also leading to record revenues, with record monthly figures during the month of March, by some margin.

This has built on the broad recovery in the number of transactions following the initial sharp drop at the beginning of the year due to Covid-19 lockdown. Provisional figures for the year would now indicate that the overall effect of Covid-19 over 2020-21 has been relatively small, with an overall shortfall of around 13% in the numbers of transactions compared to previous years.

Although across the year a greater recovery is evident in higher rates residential transactions (and the additional revenue from these) than for all residential transactions, this has evened out over the latest quarter. In the latest quarter, main rates transactions have had more of an influence, with the comparison partly affected by a greater than usual number of higher rates transactions in the early part of 2020.

The residential increases above are fuelled in part by a rise in transactions but also by a rise in the values of those transactions. These more than offset a temporary reduction in rates that impacted main rates revenues (see effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) and changes to LTT rates). This also has an impact of skewing more of the increase towards the additional revenue from higher rates which is explained in more detail later.

The data in this release should be considered in the context of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This had a significant impact on the number of property transactions and tax due during 2020-21. It therefore affects comparisons made between this period and the same period in 2019-20.

The national lockdown imposed on 23 March 2020 resulted in the housing market being mainly closed until it was partially re-opened on 22 June. At that point, house viewings could take place in vacant properties along with house moves where a sale had been agreed but not yet completed. The market was then more fully opened on 27 July 2020 to coincide with a change in LTT rates on that date, effective until 30 June 2021. Although there were further local lockdowns since and a national lockdown during the period reported in this release, these appear to have had no impact on transaction counts.

There were further changes to LTT rates effective from 22 December 2020. These changes have necessitated an edit to Table 4 introducing a more granular split of lower value tax bands. This has enabled us to correct an issue in the previous release, and subsequent data-only releases, whereby a small number of transactions of value between £150,001 and £225,000 were showing in the prior band. We estimate this was around 80 transactions over the period from December 2020 to February 2021, which are now shown correctly.

Please note that some higher rates and non-residential transactions shown in December 2020 will have been charged at pre 22 December rates, and some at the post 22 December rates. We estimate around 100 higher rates and 10 non-residential transactions are at the post 22 December rates.

It is not possible to isolate the impact of the LTT rate change from the general recovery that is likely to have occurred due to easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions. However, on a per transaction basis, we can quantify the impact.

The first rate change only applies to residential transactions at the main rate. The rates for all residential transactions at the higher rate and non-residential transactions were unchanged. For these main rate transactions, the threshold at which LTT rates was charged was raised from £180,000 to £250,000, so that the tax on all those with a value of £250,000 or less is reduced to zero. Although the LTT rates on property values above £250,000 were unchanged, those transactions also benefit from the increased threshold on the first £250,000 of their value. In these cases, LTT is reduced by £2,450 compared with that which would have been charged previously.

The second rate change from 22 December 2020 introduced the following:

• an increase of 1% across all bands for the higher residential rates of tax
   
• for non-residential transactions, the zero-rate band charged for lease premiums and assignments, and freehold property transfers increased from £150,000 to £225,000
   
• the zero-rate band of the tax charged on the rent element of non-residential leases increased from £150,000 to £225,000

The combined impact of the pandemic and the first rate change can be seen in Figure 2.1. Following an initial sharp drop in April and May 2020, there has been a steady recovery in numbers of residential and non-residential transactions since. In total, there were 2,130 residential and non-residential transactions effective in April 2020, which was just under half of the number seen in April 2019. The recovery in the property market that followed saw residential transactions increase but continue to be below the levels of 2019, until the end of September 2020. Since October, and particularly in the latter part of 2020-21, numbers have been higher than in the same months of previous years, representing the recovery referred to above.

Unlike in the first lockdown in March, the property market was largely allowed to continue in the 2-week lockdown at end October and the further lockdown introduced on 20 December to date. The dampening in property transactions seen in the first lockdown in March was not reflected in later lockdowns.

Introduction of LTT

From 1 April 2018, LTT replaced Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) on residential and non-residential property and land interests purchased in Wales. The tax rates and tax bands for LTT vary depending on the type of transaction.

LTT statistics are not fully comparable to previous SDLT statistics. This is because different rates and bands are used in LTT. The reliefs may also be different for the two taxes. For example, first time buyers’ relief applies to SDLT but not to LTT.

Value of LTT statistics

Timely information on activity in the property market is important for policy makers. When filing an LTT return about a property transaction, the organisation paying the return has 30 days after the effective date to submit and pay any tax due. Therefore, LTT statistics are relatively timely.

Forecasting LTT revenues for Wales in future is an important use of LTT statistics. The Welsh Government and the Office for Budget Responsibility mainly do this.

Data available for LTT

All of the data used in this statistical release is available in a spreadsheet on the headline statistics page.

Annually, we also publish geographic datasets for LTT on the StatsWales website. This includes annual data by:

• local authority
   
• Senedd constituency (residential transactions only)
   
• level of deprivation, using the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (residential transactions only)
   
• built up areas (residential transactions only)

For data at the Wales level, we provide links to the relevant StatsWales datasets throughout this release.

Timing of and revisions to LTT statistics

The diagram on the key quality information page explains the timing of LTT statistics. We present provisional estimates for March 2021, the quarter January to March 2021 and revised estimates for periods before this. We will revise the provisional data in future. Not all tax returns for these periods may yet have been received.

In future, we may continue to revise statistics for earlier periods to account for any amendments to transactions and new tax returns received. Reasons for this include:

• higher rate refunds being made for several years after the date of the original transaction
   
• taxpayers mistakenly sending tax returns to HMRC which relate to Welsh property transactions. Once the error is realised, it can take some time for the taxpayer to send the return correctly to the WRA.

Comparisons with the same period a year earlier

There can be seasonal patterns in the property market, with higher levels of activity generally seen in the summer and autumn, and lower levels in winter and spring. However, within the trends in 2020-21, the effects of Covid-19 and subsequent recovery appear to be a more dominant factor. Nevertheless, it can be helpful to compare the current period with data for the same period a year earlier.

However, in our monthly and quarterly statistics, we are gradually revising downwards the tax due for earlier periods. This is because of higher rate refunds being paid out in each month (for higher rates residential transactions which were effective in earlier periods, back to April 2018).

The value for January to March 2020 will have already been subject to some of this downward revision, whereas the equivalent figure for January to March 2021 will not yet. In future, there will also be some upward revisions to the values for January to March 2021 due to late transactions.

Therefore in this release, we compare:

• January to March 2021 data; and
   
• our previous estimates for January to March 2020 (which we published in April 2020)

This provides for the fairest comparisons over time. However, all comparisons of 2020-21 data against 2019-20 data should be considered in light of the effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) and changes to LTT rates.

Key quality information and glossary pages

Please see the separate glossary and key quality information while reading this statistical release:

• we define relevant terms in the glossary as they are used in this release
   
• on the key quality information page, we describe how Land Transaction Tax statistics meet the Code of Practice for Statistics and the dimensions of value, trustworthiness and quality

Properties or land sold more than once

These statistics relate to transactions which were effective in particular month, quarter or year. A property or piece of land may have been sold more than once in that time. If so, it would feature multiple times in the statistics.

For example, in April 2019 to March 2020, our best estimate is that between 4% and 5% of transactions involved a piece of land or property which has been sold more than once in the year.

In March 2020, we released an update on publishing WRA statistics due to coronavirus (COVID-19). We stated then that in our releases for LTT, we would look at any potential impacts of coronavirus (COVID-19) on our statistics. 

To understand the impacts on number of transactions, tax due and value of property taxed, users should refer to the section of this release ‘Effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) and changes to LTT rates.’

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Weekly number of transactions submitted to the WRA (MS Excel)

Figure 2.1 above shows the total number of transactions submitted to the WRA in each 7-day period for the latest 2 financial years. These periods begin on a Saturday and end on the following Friday. For example, the point ’17.4’ in 2021-22 shows the number of residential and non-residential transactions submitted to the WRA from 17 to 23 April 2021 (inclusive). The actual dates differ slightly in the previous year. For example, the same week in 2020-21 ran from 18 to 24 April 2020 (inclusive).

Please note that Figure 2.1 shows data by submitted date. This differs from effective date, which is the date we use for most analysis in this release.

The weekly number of transactions submitted from April to July 2020 ranged between 40% to 60% of the number seen in the same week of 2019 and averaged at around 50% over the whole period. Since then, there has been a recovery in transactions, with levels similar to or above those seen in the previous year since October 2020.

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LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (also includes data for 2018-19, not presented above)

By the close of 19 April 2021, we received details of 16,360 notifiable transactions with an effective date in January to March 2021. This is 23% higher than our estimate for January to March 2020 (made in April 2020 – see Figure 1.1).

The corresponding changes for residential, higher rates residential and non-residential transactions were 26% increase, 13% increase and a 2% fall, respectively. So far, coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a greater impact on residential transactions than on non-residential. There has been a greater recovery to date for higher rates residential transactions than for all residential transactions, although as stated previously, this has somewhat evened out in the latest quarter.

In January to March 2021, 91% of transactions were residential and 9% were non-residential. In the previous three-month period, residential transactions made up a slightly higher share of all transactions (92%).

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LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (also includes data for 2018-19, not presented above)

LTT statistics on total tax due including transactions with restricted detail on StatsWales (includes data for 2018-19, not presented above)

Additional transactions which were untypically large

‘Untypically large transactions’ in April 2019 to March 2020 entirely consists of a small number of public sector transactions. These transactions relate to Transport for Wales’ purchase from Network Rail of the Core Valley Line rail asset in Wales. Details of these transactions are presented here to aid transparency of this large public sector transaction, with agreement of the buyer (Transport for Wales) and seller (Network Rail). Further information on these transactions is available from the Transport for Wales website.

Additional transactions with restricted detail (to protect confidentiality)

For some transactions, we are unable to provide any information other than the total tax due figure in the year, as there is a risk of revealing details of the individual transactions. These are rounded to the nearest million pounds for additional protection. They should only be included if seeking a value for total LTT revenue in the year April 2019 to March 2020.

Quarterly comparisons on a like-for-like basis

Excluding the transactions described above, the total tax due for transactions with an effective date in January to March 2021 was £79.1 million. This value is 46% higher than our estimate for January to March 2020 (published in April 2020 – see Figure 1.1).

The corresponding changes for residential tax due, additional revenue from higher rates residential, and non-residential tax due were a increases of 54%, 80% and 25%, respectively.

The residential increases have been fuelled in part by the rise in transactions but also by a rise in the values of those transactions, which more than offset the temporary reduction in rates that impacted main rates revenues (see ‘Effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) and changes to LTT rates’).

The increase in revenues is mainly due to higher price properties charged at a higher tax rate when compared with the same period last year.

Note though the increase of 80% in additional revenue is somewhat inflated by the temporary reduction in main rates as that reduction was not also applied to higher rates transactions. The result is that since July 2020 all revenue from higher rates is classed as “additional” revenue, whereas in the same period of 2019, the “additional” element would have excluded any main rates elements.

For example, the component of tax due in the band £180,000 to £250,000 was previously 3% of the property value (for main rates residential transactions effective up to 26 July 2020). From 27 July 2020 until 31 June 2021, this changed to 0%, whereas for residential transactions at the higher rates, the component of tax due on this band was unchanged at 6.5%. Therefore, for higher rates transactions, all the revenue in this band is now counted as additional revenue.

In this case, it is therefore safer to focus on the increase in tax across all residential transactions if making the comparisons above (namely, the 54% figure). This being larger than the increase in the number of transactions (26%) demonstrates that a mix of both the number and value of those transactions is at play.

For non-residential transactions, we can see that tax due in January to March 2021 is up on the corresponding period in 2019, despite the number of transactions falling. Previously, it was suggested that this may be an indicator that higher value transactions may be recovering more slowly. Data for the last 6 months of 2020-21 would now suggest this is not the case, with average transaction revenues returning to levels seen at the end of the previous year.

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LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (also includes data for 2018-19, not presented above)

The value of property taxed in January to March 2021 was £3.9 billion, higher than the £2.6 billion seen in January to March 2020. This is consistent with the rise in residential transactions but also by a rise in the values of those transactions (described under Figure 2.3). section 3 of this release describes trends in residential transactions and tax due by value.

Separately, in January to March 2021, the rental value for newly granted non-residential leases was £380 million. The equivalent figure in January to March 2020 was £293 million.

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LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (includes data for 2018-19, not presented above)

2019-20 residential data

The numbers of residential transactions by effective month varied somewhat since April 2019. There is general seasonality with more transactions in the summer and autumn months, although some fluctuation is due to there being five Fridays in certain months, rather than four. Figure 2.9 in our annual statistical release shows that nearly half of transactions have an effective date that is a Friday.

2020-21 residential data

Following the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in March 2020, the monthly number of residential transactions dropped significantly in April. Since then, it has gradually recovered, rising above the numbers seen in the previous year between October and December. In January 2021 the numbers fell but has since risen again to above the numbers seen in the previous year. Within this number, higher rate residential transactions have recovered to a greater extent, although as stated previously, this has somewhat evened out in the latest quarter.

Non-residential

In both March 2020 and March 2021, we see an increase from the previous month (February) in non-residential transactions. This may be expected, as it is common for non-residential leases to be renewed at the end of the financial year.

The impact of coronavirus is less easily seen in non-residential transactions. This is in part due to the lower number of transactions generally, and also that the numbers of transactions have generally held up better than those for residential.

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LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (includes data for 2018-19, not presented above)

As may be expected, similar trends are seen in the monthly residential tax due as are seen in the monthly counts of transactions, although there has been an even greater recovery in revenues for higher rates transactions than for all residential transactions in 2020-21. In October, November and December 2020, the additional revenue from higher residential transactions had recovered to considerably above the level seen in the same months in 2019, although the former will reduce slightly as refunds yet to be claimed are processed. In the latest 3 months, residential revenues have continued to rise to record levels, with the influence of main rates transactions increasing compared to previous quarters.

There is greater volatility in the monthly series for non-residential transactions. They also make up a larger share of total tax due than the share of the number of transactions.

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LTT statistics by time period and transaction type on StatsWales (includes data for 2018-19, not presented above)

Non-residential revenues were steady in April 2020, due to a small number of large transactions in April. Non-residential revenues then fell to the lowest level seen to date in May 2020 (£1.5 million), before generally recovering in the remainder of 2020. In the February and March 2021, revenues have increased above levels seen in 2019.

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LTT statistics by transaction type and transaction description on StatsWales

The value of the properties associated with conveyances and transfer of ownership during January to March 2021 was £3.9 billion (not shown in Figure 2.7).

Most of these transactions were associated with a conveyance or a transfer of ownership. This figure was 95% for residential transactions and 72% for non-residential transactions.

A new lease was granted in 25% of non-residential transactions (compared with 1% of residential transactions).

Similar percentages are seen in previous three-month periods and years.

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LTT statistics by time period and residential transaction value on StatsWales

For each tax band, Figures 3.1 and 3.2 show the quarterly trends in the number of residential transactions and tax due. There are six residential tax bands. We have combined the largest three bands here to show results for properties purchased for more than £400,000.

Despite the impact of Covid-19, and the recovery referred to previously, seasonal trends can still be seen in the numbers of transactions, with most of the tax bands showing a fall in January to March (compared with the preceding October to December). Seasonal trends in revenues are more complicated, with much of 2020-21 subject to the effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) and changes to LTT rates. To understand these trends, users should refer to the section of this release ‘Effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) and changes to the LTT rates’.

There is greatest volatility in the trends when considering the tax due on properties in the highest value bands. For properties purchased for more than £400,000, the tax due in January to March 2021 was the highest quarterly value seen to date. These recent trends are driven by a combination of increases in the number of transactions, and the value of those transactions.

Further there is a drop in the average value of tax due per transaction between £180,000 and £250,000 in the latest quarters. This is due to the temporary reduction in LTT rates for main rate residential transactions introduced on 27 July 2020, despite the increase in the higher rates element of LTT introduced on 22 December 2020.

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LTT statistics by time period and residential transaction value on StatsWales

In January to March 2021, 51% of residential transactions were within the first tax band (purchase price £180,000 or lower). Although the main tax rate on residential transactions of up to £180,000 is 0%, these transactions still accounted for 17% of total residential tax due, which relates to the higher rates residential component of the tax.

The 20% of transactions in the second tax band (purchase price £180,001 to £250,000) accounted for a lower proportion of the tax due (9%) than seen in earlier quarters (previously around 15%). This effect would be expected due to the LTT rate change on 27 July 2020.

Combining the fourth, fifth and sixth bands (purchase price of greater than £400,000), these accounted for 8% of transactions. However, the tax due for these transactions accounted for 48% of the total residential tax due, the highest proportion to date.

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LTT statistics by time period and non-residential transaction value on StatsWales

For each tax band, Figures 4.1 and 4.2 show the quarterly trends in the number of non-residential transactions and tax due. There are 5 tax bands for the non-rental value. We have combined the smallest 3 bands here to show results for properties with a non-rental value less than £250,000.

Figure 4.1 shows that in April to June 2020, the number of transactions in each value band fell to the lowest quarterly values seen to date, before recovering between July and December 2020, and levelling off in the latest quarter. To understand these trends, users should refer to the section of this release ‘Effects of coronavirus (COVID-19) and the LTT rate change on 27 July 2020’.

In each three-month period since April 2018, around 50% to 70% of the tax due has been contributed by transactions with a non-rental value greater than £1 million. In each three-month period, around 10% to 30% of the tax due has been contributed by the rental value of non-residential properties.

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LTT statistics by time period and non-residential transaction value on StatsWales

Figure 4.3 shows that in January to March 2021, 6% of non-residential transactions had a non-rental value of more than £1 million. These transactions accounted for 68% of the non-residential tax due (Figure 4.4).

Figure 4.3 also shows that for 23% of non-residential transactions in this period, a rental value was associated with the property (which contributed to the tax paid on the transaction).

The rental value of non-residential properties accounted for 15% of the total non-residential tax due (Figure 4.4).

Taxpayers can claim reliefs on both residential and non-residential transactions. Reliefs reduce the amount of tax due when certain conditions are met. More than one relief can be applied to a single transaction.

Reliefs may reduce the tax due:

• to zero, known as a full relief, or
   
• by a certain percentage or amount, known as a partial relief

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LTT statistics on reliefs by measure and transaction type on StatsWales

There were 340 transactions in January to March 2021 with reliefs applied to them that reduced the associated tax due. This is lower than the previous quarter. The lowest quarterly value seen to date were the 160 and 250 relieved transactions seen in April to June 2020 and July to September 2020. These effects are consistent with recent trends in transactions numbers as a whole and should be read in the context of the earlier section on the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the property market from April 2020 and the changes to LTT rates.

On average, there are around 120 reliefs claimed in each three-month period which had no impact on the tax due. These reliefs are excluded from Figure 5.1. Many of them have been reported unnecessarily by the organisations completing the tax return.

As an example, some of these mistakenly claimed reliefs apply to low value residential transactions. Indications are that they are due to a perceived but mistaken need to claim first time buyer relief (which applies for the predecessor tax, but not to LTT). This is known following queries raised with several agents asking why tax reliefs have been claimed where there is no impact on value of the tax. Further information about this category of reliefs is provided in Example 4 in our key quality information.

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LTT statistics on reliefs by measure and transaction type on StatsWales

For each three-month period, the numbers of reliefs claimed on residential transactions was higher than for non-residential transactions. The value of reliefs claimed in each three-month has varied considerably over time, along with the share of the value from residential or non-residential transactions. In most of the three-month periods, non-residential transactions contributed over 50% of the total value of reliefs claimed.

However, several large residential transactions in April to June 2019 and October to December 2020 contributed to residential reliefs being considerably larger than non-residential reliefs in this period.

Further data on reliefs is available on StatsWales at the link above, including quarterly data by type of relief.

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LTT statistics on higher rate refunds by original transaction date on StatsWales

When a taxpayer claims a refund for higher rates residential LTT, the original transaction is amended to a main rate residential LTT transaction. The data in this release is adjusted for any refunds approved by WRA up to and including 19 April 2021.

(not shown in Figure 6.1) Cumulatively, 3,860 higher rate refunds were claimed for transactions effective since April 2018, with £32.1 million refunded to taxpayers.

Taxpayers have up to three years to sell their previous main residence and claim a refund. Therefore, all the values in Figure 6.1 will continue to be revised upwards in future editions of our statistics. This will lead to the total tax due in other tables and charts reducing.

The number and value of refunds presented for January to March 2021 is lower than for earlier periods. This is because compared with earlier periods, not enough time has passed since the transaction was effective for many of the relevant taxpayers to sell their previous main residence and claim their refund.

Refunds of higher rates residential by date the refund was approved

Another useful way of presenting data on higher rates refunds is to use the date when the refund was approved by the WRA. A dataset using these dates and the effective date of the original transaction can be found on the StatsWales website at the link below.

LTT statistics on higher rate refunds by original transaction date and refund approved date on StatsWales

Refunds of higher rates residential (cash basis)

Further information on the refund payments made to taxpayers, by the month in which they were made, can be found at the link below.

LTT statistics on tax paid and higher rate refunds (cash basis) on StatsWales

In the main, these additional data are provided to support forecasting requirements.

Intention to claim a refund of the higher rates element

For all higher rates transactions, the WRA asks the question whether the taxpayer intends to reclaim the higher rates element in future. It will take several years before we know how likely someone is to claim based on their stated intentions (it can take up to three years to make the claim). But we do currently know that around 70% of those who do claim answer this question in the positive.

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LTT statistics on tax paid and higher rate refunds (cash basis) on StatsWales

These data on LTT payments received differ from those reported in Figure 2.3 as they relate to the payments received in each month (often referred to as ‘on a cash basis’). This differs from earlier tables in this release which are based on transactions that were effective in the month.

There is a difference in April 2018 as the WRA only started collecting the tax in that month. Therefore, no payments relating to transactions effective in earlier months were relevant.

Excluding the core valley lines transaction (described under Figure 2.3):

• the highest monthly receipts seen to date were in December 2019 and March 2021 (£30.5 million)
   
• receipts in April to October 2020 were markedly lower than the same months in 2019, although the steady recovery evident in the numbers of transactions following coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdowns is borne out by similar increases in receipts during the latter part of 2020-21

We look here at the effect of the regular revisions made to Land Transaction Tax statistics. We analyse the differences between the first, second and third estimates published for a month. This is for both the number of transactions and the tax due.

For example, we have published three estimates for January 2021. We published the first estimate on 19 February 2021, published the second estimate on 19 March 2021 and the third estimate on 29 April 2021.

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Percentage change between the first and second estimates, by month transaction was effective (MS Excel)

Figure A1 shows that higher levels of revisions can generally be seen in the earlier months that the WRA began collecting LTT. This is particularly the case for the tax due for transactions with an effective date in April 2018, where there was a 30% increase in the estimate of tax due (from the first to the second estimate for the month). A larger revision in April 2018 was expected because the familiarity of the system to users would have been lower, and also because an earlier cut-off date in the following month was used to extract the data.

Nevertheless, the 30% figure for April 2018 in terms of tax due is considerably higher than the equivalent figure for the number of transactions (11%). It is explained by a few larger transactions with an effective date late in April 2018 that were not reported to WRA until later in May 2018 (before the 30 day filing limit, but after the cut-off date for the April publication).

Figure A1 also shows the levels of revisions have generally decreased over time. Since October 2018, the revisions between the first and second monthly estimates have generally been between 0 and 5%. Recent exceptions were:

• June 2019 when the tax due was revised up by 9% between the first and second estimate
   
• September 2019 (tax due was revised upwards by 16%)
   
• January 2020 (tax due was revised upwards by 27%)
   
• March 2020 (tax due was revised upwards by 6%)

These exceptions are generally due to a small number of larger value returns arriving towards the end of the 30-day notification period.

The lower level of revisions generally seen now is likely to be due in part to an increasing familiarity with the system amongst solicitors and conveyancers completing the returns. It is consistent with a general decrease in the time taken for returns to be filed with the WRA over the same period (not shown in tables or charts).

There may also be seasonal effects in revisions to the data. Although we saw higher revisions for the July 2018 estimates than the months around it, we do not see any obvious similarities in data for 2019. The 2020-21 data has been significantly influenced by coronavirus (COVID-19) effects. Therefore we will require at least another year’s worth of data to properly assess any revisions for seasonality.

Revisions between second and third published estimates

In a spreadsheet published alongside this statistical release, Tables A1 and A2 show the difference between first, second and third published estimates for a month.

We see relatively small increases between the second and third estimates for a month. In general, this is also the case for the later estimates for a month (not shown in the tables). However, falls may be seen in the second, third and later estimates of tax due for a month. This is because the data are shown net of any refunds for higher rate residential transactions. These refunds may be claimed several years after the effective date of the original transaction. We analyse refunds in section 6 of this statistical release.

In future, we may consider applying a grossing factor to the first estimates for a month. This may help reduce the revisions required to the first estimate for a month. With the volatility shown in the data to date, it is likely we will need several years of LTT data to calculate appropriate grossing factors.

In general, we see larger revisions in the data on non-residential transactions than for residential transactions. This reflects the more volatile nature and often larger size of non-residential transactions.

Our key quality information page describes how our Land Transaction Tax statistics meet the Code of Practice for Statistics and the dimensions of value, trustworthiness and quality.

We define relevant terms in the glossary as they are used in this release.

We would be grateful for your feedback on these statistics, to help us improve them. Please contact us using the details below.