This paper has been used to inform guidelines for developing effective pre-16 early identification systems.
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Focusing on indicators where data are routinely collected in Wales, this paper aims to assess the extent to which demographic characteristics and school-based indicators would be effective in predicting young people at risk of becoming NEET in Wales. Although personal or attitudinal indicators are important, as data on these are not routinely available at a national level, they are out of scope of this paper. The paper begins with a literature review on the variables for predicting young people at risk of disengaging from learning and becoming NEET. This was used to inform the design of an analysis of Careers Wales destination data and Pupil Level Annual School Census data.
Early identification of young people at risk of disengagement is the foundation of the Youth Engagement and Progression Framework. As part of implementing these actions for early identification of young people, the Welsh Government is setting core standards for early identification to support local authorities in developing their own approach.
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