This report provides more detail on the specific methods that underpinned the analysis of the National Pupil Database in the outcome evaluation report.

It provides technical detail on the:

  • descriptive overview of the four years of data prior to the introduction of Schools Challenge Cymru (SCC) in 2014 and comparing this to data when SCC was underway (i.e. 2014/2015 and 2015/2016).
  • hierarchical (multilevel) modelling to analyse the principal factors shaping performance.
  • forecasting model (using econometric techniques) which was used to predict how Pathways to Success schools might have performed without the SCC intervention.


Evaluation of Schools Challenge Cymru: a quantitative analysis of pupil-level data
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