Estimates of housing need: 2019-based

These figures are an update on the 2018-based estimates of additional housing need published in 2019.

Estimates of housing need are key to future planning requirements at a national and regional level and will be used to inform the National Development Framework (NDF) and housing policy development.

Background

Figures relate to the need for additional housing units and are based on:

• estimates of existing unmet need
• newly arising need (2018-based household projections)

Household projections are not forecasts, they are based purely on past trends and assume these trends continue into the future. In particular, such projections do not attempt to account for the effect of future policies (for example, policies which might seek to influence population movement) and events.

The estimates are presented at a national level and for four regions:

• north Wales
• mid Wales
• south west Wales
• south east Wales

The estimates of additional housing need are split into two tenures:

• market housing (owner occupier and private rented sector)
• affordable housing (intermediate and social rents)

The tenure split has been produced for the first 5 years of estimates and is based on a set of assumptions (including future household income growth and future change to private rent prices).

The estimates do not take into account the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19), as there is currently considerable uncertainty about such impacts.

Main points

During the first 5 years (2019/20 to 2023/24), it is estimated that between 6,200 and 8,300 additional housing units will be required annually, with a central estimate of 7,400. These figures include an annual average of 1,100 additional housing units to clear those in existing unmet need over the first 5 years.

The estimates of additional housing need decrease over the remaining 15 years. This reflects a slowdown in the projected household growth from the 2018-based household projections.

Under the central estimate, the additional annual housing need estimate of 7,400 is split into 3,900 additional market housing units (52% of the additional housing need) and 3,500 additional affordable housing units (48% of the additional housing need) over the next five years (2019/20 to 2023/24).

Limitations

These estimates:

• DO provide a range of need for additional housing units based on past trends and best available data
• DO estimate what the tenure split of housing need could be given a set of assumptions
• DO use the best available data sources in the underlying assumptions as agreed by an expert group
• DO form a basis of discussion for policy decisions
• CANNOT forecast exactly what is going to happen in the future
• DO NOT attempt to estimate the number of households in unsuitable accommodation
• SHOULD NOT be used as a housing target in Wales.

Further information

This statistical article is supported by data published on StatsWales as well as an Excel tool where all data sources and underlying assumptions can be altered to observe the impact on the estimates of additional housing units split by tenure. The link to the Excel tool is available under the 'Data' heading below.

Further information on the principles and processes leading up to the production of these statistics can be found in the quality report.