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Antibody data for Wales is now published fortnightly in a separate release.

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey (CIS) is run across the whole of the UK and aims to estimate:

  • how many people have the infection over a given time (positivity)
  • how many new cases occur over a given period (incidence)
  • how many people have antibodies to COVID-19

The survey helps track the extent of infection and transmission of COVID-19 among people in private residences, referred to as the community population.

Proportion of people in Wales who had COVID-19

For the week of 4 to 10 July 2021 it is estimated that 0.28% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 0.16% to 0.42%).

This equates to around 1 in 360 individuals (95% credible interval: 1 in 610 to 1 in 240), or an estimated 8,400 people in total (credible interval: 5,000 to 12,900).

The trend of the percentage of people testing positive is uncertain in the most recent week.

Since the estimates are based on a relatively low number of positive tests, caution should be taken in over-interpreting any small movements in the latest trend.

Further information on the classification of positive cases can be found on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website.

Please note that there is a greater lag in data from the infection survey than from other sources such as Public Health Wales.

Image
Chart showing the official estimates for the percentage of people testing positive through nose and throat swabs from 30 May to 10 July 2021. The trend of the percentage of people testing positive is uncertain in the most recent week.

Cases compatible with the Delta variant have increased in Wales over the most recent two weeks, but the trend is uncertain in the most recent week. Cases compatible with the Alpha variant and cases where the virus is too low for the variant to be identifiable remain low in the most recent week.

Cases where the virus is too low for the variant to be identifiable are often due to individuals having had the virus for a longer period of time.

Cases compatible with the Alpha variant, Delta variant and other variants continue to be monitored via the survey. Data on cases compliant with different variants can be found in the technical dataset on the ONS website.

Image
Chart showing estimates for the percentage of positive cases compatible with the Alpha variant, the Delta variant and cases that were not identifiable.

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 by single year of age since 21 February 2021 for Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland is provided in the ONS dataset.

Estimates for incidence in Wales

Estimates of incidence of PCR-positive cases have been re-introduced for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland following a period of low positivity. The estimates are available in the data tables on the ONS website.

The incidence of new infections (the number of new infections in a set period of time) helps us understand the rate at which infections are growing within the population and supports the main measure of positivity (how many people test positive at any given time) to provide a fuller understanding of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

For more information on the method of estimating incidence please see the methods article on the ONS website.

In Wales, during the week ending 26 June 2021, it is estimated that there were 2.26 new positive coronavirus (COVID-19) cases per 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 1.40 to 3.43).

This equates to 690 new positive cases in Wales per day (95% credible interval: 430 to 1,000).

When prevalence is very low it may not be possible to produce a reliable estimate.

Estimates for the countries of the UK

At the midpoint of the most recent week (4 to 10 July 2021), the estimated percentage of the community population with COVID-19 across the UK ranged from 0.28% in Wales to 1.14% in Scotland.

The percentage of people testing positive has continued to increase over one week in England and Scotland and over two weeks in Northern Ireland. The trend is uncertain in Wales in the most recent week.

There is some uncertainty around the individual point estimates for the nations. Estimates for the last few days of the series, shown as dashed lines in the chart below, have more uncertainty.

Image
Chart showing the official estimates for the percentage of people testing positive through nose and throat swabs from 30 May to 10 July 2021 for the four countries of the UK.

The following tables summarise positivity rates and incidence rates across the UK countries.

Table 1: Positivity rates across UK countries for the week 4 to 10 July 2021
  Positivity rates
 (95% Credible Interval)
Wales 0.28%
(0.16 to 0.42)
1 in 360 people
(1 in 610 to 1 in 240)
8,400 people
(5,000 to 12,900)
England 1.06%
(0.98 to 1.15)
1 in 95 people
(1 in 100 to 1 in 85)
577,700 people
(532,700 to 625,300)
Scotland 1.14%
(0.91 to 1.40)
1 in 90 people
(1 in 110 to 1 in 70)
60,000 people
(48,100 to 73,700)
Northern Ireland 0.34%
(0.17 to 0.59)
1 in 290 people
(1 in 600 to 1 in 170)
6,300 people
(3,100 to 10,700)

Source: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, Office for National Statistics

Table 2: Official estimates of incidence rates across the UK countries, 20 to 26 June 2021
   Incidence
(95% Credible Interval) 
Wales 2.26 cases per 10,000 people per day
(1.40 to 3.43)
690 new cases per day
(430 to 1,000)
England 5.20 cases per 10,000 people per day
(4.65 to 5.80)
28,300 new cases per day
(25,400 to 31,600)
Scotland 8.65 cases per 10,000 people per day
(6.60 to 11.29)
4,600 new cases per day
(3,500 to 5,900)
Northern Ireland 1.96 cases per 10,000 people per day
(1.05 to 3.36)
360 new cases per day
(190 to 620)

Source: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, Office for National Statistics

Definitions

Cases compatible with variants

Cases identified as being compatible with known variants of Covid-19 based on their genetic patterns. Variants of Concern and Variants of Interest have recently been relabelled by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Further information on the identification of variants in the survey can be found on the ONS website.

Community population

This survey covers people living in private households only and this is referred to as the community population. Residents in hospitals, care homes and/or other institutional settings are excluded.

Confidence intervals

A confidence interval gives an indication of the degree of uncertainty of an estimate, showing the precision of a sample estimate. The 95% confidence intervals are calculated so that if we repeated the study many times, 95% of the time the true unknown value would lie between the lower and upper confidence limits. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. Overlapping confidence intervals indicate that there may not be a true difference between two estimates.

Credible intervals

A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

Incidence

The number of new infections over a period of time.

Modelled estimates

Estimates of positivity from this survey are based on statistical modelling of the underlying data. The model smooths the series to understand the trend and is revised each week to incorporate new test results.

Point estimates

The headline point estimates are based on the modelled trend and reflect the most representative reference point for the given week.

Positivity rate

The estimated proportion of people who test positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) at a point in time, with or without symptoms, based on nose and throat swabs.

Quality and methodology information

The results of the survey are based on self-administered nose and throat swabs provided by participants to the study. A subgroup of participants also provide blood test, taken by trained field staff.

As well as looking at overall incidence, positivity and antibody level, the survey will be used to examine the characteristics of those testing positive for COVID-19 and the extent to which those infected experience symptoms. The results are for private households only and do not apply to those in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. This is referred to as the community population.

The survey covers all the countries of the UK, enabling estimates to be calculated for each country individually, and in time the UK as a whole.

Fieldwork started first in England on 26 April 2020 meaning there is more cumulative data available for England enabling more detailed analysis at present. Fieldwork began in Wales on 29 June 2020 followed by Northern Ireland on 26 July 2020 and Scotland on 21 September 2020.

It is important to note that there is a significant degree of uncertainty with the estimates. This is because, despite a large sample of participants, the number of positive cases identified is small. Estimates are provided with 95% credible or confidence intervals to indicate the range within which we may be confident the true figure lies.

The modelled estimates are carried out afresh each week using the previous 6 weeks’ data. The model works by smoothing the series to understand the trend and is revised each week to incorporate new test results. This means that the latest estimate for an earlier period may be different to the official estimate that was produced at the time. Chart 1 shows the latest modelled trend and the official (point) estimates that were published at the time.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly statistical bulletins and references tables and periodic statistical articles which include results for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland as they become available.  The estimates for Northern Ireland and Scotland are published by the respective administrations, as we do here for Wales. 

Further information about quality and methodology can be found on the ONS website and the survey pages on the Oxford University site.

Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG)

The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. The Act puts in place seven well-being goals for Wales. These are for a more equal, prosperous, resilient, healthier and globally responsible Wales, with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. Under section (10)(1) of the Act, the Welsh Ministers must (a) publish indicators (“national indicators”) that must be applied for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the Well-being goals, and (b) lay a copy of the national indicators before Senedd Cymru. The 46 national indicators were laid in March 2016.

Information on the indicators, along with narratives for each of the well-being goals and associated technical information is available in the Well-being of Wales report.

Further information on the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

The statistics included in this release could also provide supporting narrative to the national indicators and be used by public services boards in relation to their local well-being assessments and local well-being plans.

Next update

23 July 2021

Contact details

Statistician: Lisa Bloemberg
Telephone: 0300 025 0166
Email: kas.covid19@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099

SFR 215/2021

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