Analysis of the proportion of people testing positive, the rate of new infections and the proportion of people with antibodies for COVID-19 for 14 to 20 August 2020.
The COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) aims to establish:
- how many people have the infection over a given time
- how many new cases occur over a given period
- how many people have antibodies to COVID-19.
The survey will help track the current extent of infection and transmission of COVID-19 among people in private residences, referred to as the community population. As well as looking at incidence overall, the survey will be used to examine the characteristics of those testing positive for COVID-19 and the extent to which those infected experience symptoms.
Fieldwork started in Wales on 29 June 2020 and results are now available. It is important to note that there is a significant degree of uncertainty with the estimates. This is because, despite a large sample of participants, the number of positive cases identified is small. Estimates are provided with 95% credible intervals to indicate the range within which we may be confident the true figure lies.
The results are for private households only and do not apply to those in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
The latest results for Wales show that for the week of 14 to 20 August 2020 it is estimated that an average of 0.04% of the community population had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 0.01% to 0.09%).
This equates to around 1 in 2,800 individuals (95% credible interval: 1 in 14,700 to 1 in 1,200), or an estimated 1,100 people in total (credible interval: 200 to 2,700).
Modelling suggests that the rate has been stable over the most recent 6 weeks.
Further analysis will be possible as the survey progresses and more data are available. We intend to publish estimates for incidence (the number of new infections per 10,000 people) and the proportion of people with antibodies to COVID-19 when the data support this level of analysis.
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