Young Person’s Guarantee (YPG): evaluability assessment and proposed evaluation framework

Background

The Young Person’s Guarantee is the Welsh Government’s commitment to provide young people aged 16 to 24 in Wales with an offer of support to gain a place in education or training, find a job or become self-employed. The Welsh Government’s Youth Engagement and Progression Framework (YEPF) is concerned with providing support for young people aged 11 to 18 at risk of becoming not in education, employment or training (NEET) or homeless, or who are NEET.

Purpose

This report addresses the evaluability of the YPG and how it could be evaluated. It also encompasses evaluation of the YEPF because this policy overlaps with and complements the YPG.

Coverage

The report sets out:

• three interlinked theories of change for the YPG and YEPF, concerned with policy and practice, young people and wider societal impact
• a high level (‘meta’) theory of change for the YPG
• discussion of relevant social theoretical approaches
• proposed evaluation questions
• an overview and assessment of the availability and adequacy of existing or potential data to answer the questions
• proposed key performance indicators (KPIs) for the YPG, the YEPF, and the YPG and YEPF together

Conclusions

The YPG is evaluable to an extent. However, impact attribution in terms of outcomes for young people and wider societal impact is likely to be challenging. Therefore, a theory-based approach to impact evaluation, such as contribution analysis, should be used. 

This could provide evidence and a line of reasoning about the contribution the YPG and YEPF have made to documented outcomes for young people and wider society, even if it is not possible to quantify the size or extent of effects.