Subnational population projections (local authority): 2018 to 2043

These projections provide an indication of the possible size and structure of local authorities’ population for the period 2018 to 2043.

The projections are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact of government policies, changing economic circumstances, or other factors (like the coronavirus pandemic) on future population.

This report revises the projections originally published on 27 February 2020. This  is due to an error in the Office for National Statistics’ 2018-based national population projections for Wales. You can find further information about the revision in the report.

This report provides analysis of the latest local authority population projections, including comparisons with previous projections.

Principal projection

During the period 2018 to 2028:

• the population is projected to increase in the majority of local authorities
• the local authorities whose populations are projected to increase the most are Newport (by 7.2%), the Vale of Glamorgan (by 6.0%) and Bridgend (by 4.6%)
• the population is projected to decrease in four of the 22 local authorities
• the local authorities whose populations are projected to decrease are Ceredigion (by 3.3%), Wrexham (by 1.5%), Blaenau Gwent (by 0.7%) and the Isle of Anglesey (by 0.4%)

Over the full 25-year projection period, the population is projected to decrease in the same four local authorities, and increase in the remaining local authorities.

Projections by age

During the period 2018 to 2028:

• the majority of local authorities are projected to see a decrease in children and young people aged 0 to 15 years old
• the majority of local authorities are also projected to see a decrease in the working-age population aged 16 to 64 years old, other than for largely urban local authorities in south Wales and in Gwynedd
• all local authorities are projected to see an increase in people aged 65 or over, with large increases projected for people aged 75 or over

Components of change

During the period 2018 to 2028:

• natural change (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths) is projected to be increasingly more negative in the majority of local authorities
• by 2028 only Cardiff and Newport are projected to have more births than deaths
• overall net migration is projected to be positive for all local authorities
• overall net migration is projected to be increasingly more positive other than in Newport and the Vale of Glamorgan