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The report analyses the results from the latest projections for local authorities and national parks, including variant projections.

Error with 2018-based data

On Monday 18 May 2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) issued a notice on its website informing users that they had identified an error affecting the 2018-based national population projections. They issued an update on Friday 22 May detailing that the error was caused by incorrect processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England, resulting in the projected mid-2028 population for Wales being approximately 65,000 too low, and that for England being approximately 65,000 too high.

The ONS published corrected projections for Wales on Thursday 11 June. These are also available on our page ‘National population projections: 2018-based’. The ONS will publish the full replacement summary tables by the end of June.

Having consulted with our expert group about the implications for our statistical products that are based on the 2018-based national population projections, we decided to withdraw the following outputs for Wales.

  • 2018-based local authority population projections
  • 2018-based local authority household projections

This includes removing the corresponding data sets from StatsWales.

We will provide further details of our plans to replace these products as soon as possible.

If you are using the 2018-based national or local authority projections and would like advice, please contact us: stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Contact

Steph Harries

Telephone: 0300 025 6186

Media

Telephone: 0300 025 5050

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