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The report provides further analyses of the results from the latest household projections for local authorities, including variant projections.

Error with 2018-based data

On Monday 18 May 2020, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) issued a notice on its website informing users that they had identified an error affecting the 2018-based national population projections. They issued an update on Friday 22 May detailing that the error was caused by incorrect processing of cross-border flows between Wales and England, resulting in the projected mid-2028 population for Wales being approximately 65,000 too low, and that for England being approximately 65,000 too high.

The ONS will be publishing corrected projections for Wales by Thursday 11 June, and will publish the full replacement summary tables by the end of June.

Having consulted with our expert group about the implications for our statistical products that are based on the 2018-based national population projections, we have decided to withdraw the following outputs for Wales as they are not currently fit for purpose and are misleading to users of Welsh data.

  • 2018-based national population projections
  • 2018-based local authority population projections
  • 2018-based local authority household projections

This includes removing the corresponding data sets from StatsWales.

We will provide further details of our plans to replace these products as soon as possible.

If you are using the 2018-based national or local authority projections and would like advice, please contact us: stats.popcensus@gov.wales.

Contact

Stephanie Harries

Telephone: 0300 025 6186

Media

Telephone: 0300 025 5050

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