Statistics Wales Demography newsletter: September 2021

On 12 August, three additional variant population projections, based on alternative migration assumptions, were published on StatsWales. These include a zero migration variant, a 10-year average migration variant and a 15-year average migration variant.

On 12 August, three additional variant household projections, based on alternative migration assumptions, were published on StatsWales. These include a zero migration variant, a 10-year average migration variant and a 15-year average migration variant.

The 2020 mid-year estimates of the population for UK countries were published on 25 June 2021 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This follows the Early indicators of UK population size and age structure: 2020 ONS release that was published on 16 April.      

The 2020 mid-year estimate of the population of Wales was 3,170,000, an increase of 0.5% (16,700) on the mid-2019 estimate. There were estimated to be more people aged 65 and over living in Wales (669,000) than children aged 0 to 15 (563,000).

The 2020 mid-year estimate of the UK population (ONS) was 67,080,000, an increase of 0.4% compared with the mid-2019 estimate. This growth rate is the lowest for the UK since mid-2001.

These are the first population estimates to show impacts from the pandemic. However, these estimates refer to population as at 30 June 2020, meaning that they only account for the first three months of the pandemic.

Future releases of the population estimates will provide information on the impact from mid-2020 to mid-2021.

It should be noted that there are some definitional changes (particularly affecting the migration components) compared to last year’s data and it is advised that users read the Quality and methodology information section on the ONS website.

Data is available on StatsWales by administrative area, single year of age, sex and components of population change, including internal migration.

The mid-2020 household estimates are due to be published on 23 September 2021.

The ONS recently launched a public consultation, outlining its proposals for the content design and shape of the release plans for 2021 Census outputs. The aim of the consultation is to obtain an updated view of users’ detailed needs for 2021 Census data and analysis, and to understand users’ priorities. Users’ feedback will help the ONS make decisions on the final design of the 2021 Census outputs and analysis for Wales and England.

The consultation will remain open until midnight on 5 October 2021. The ONS plans to publish its response to users’ feedback this winter.

The ONS has recently published a series of articles providing an update to the latest developments in measuring international migration.

Population and migration statistics system transformation: recent updates (ONS)

Welsh language statistical profiles for local authorities

The Welsh Government is currently developing a tool that brings together data on the Welsh language at a local authority level and Wales level.

The profiles include the following data:

• demographics of the area
• Census (including Welsh language transmission)
• Annual Population Survey
• Welsh Language Use Survey
• early years
• education

The tool is currently in draft form, and we have already identified the need to add the following data to the tool:

• National indicators of well-being of future generations
• National Survey for Wales
• education data for the Welsh in Education Strategic Plans
• education workforce data

The tool is currently in an Excel file, available in Welsh and in English. The long-term goal is to move towards a tool that is an interactive dashboard.

The profiles are currently at the development stage and have been shared with a small group of local authority users, so that we are able to receive some feedback on the tool.

If you would be interested in having access to an early draft of the profiles, please contact welshlanguagedata@gov.wales for further information.

Annual Population Survey

On 9 September, the Annual Population Survey results on the Welsh language, April 2020 to March 2021 were published.

According to the survey 29.1% of people aged three or older in Wales were able to speak Welsh (this figure equates to around 883,300 people) for the year ending 31 March 2021.

The next update, for the year ending 30 June 2021, will be published on 5 October 2021.

It is important to emphasise, of course, that the census is the authoritative source for the number of Welsh speakers in Wales, and this is how we will measure progress against the ambition of having a million Welsh speakers by 2050.

Welsh Language Use Survey

On 14 September, initial findings from the Welsh Language Use Survey, July 2019 to March 2020-20 were published. The survey concluded earlier than planned due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The analysis reports on how often Welsh speakers speak the language, how well and where they have learnt the language. It also includes data for the national indicator on the use of Welsh.

According to the survey 10% of the population aged three or older in Wales spoke Welsh daily and could speak more than a few words, the same percentage as in 2013-15. This is one of the national indicators for the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 regarding the Welsh language.

Of the Welsh speakers aged three or older in Wales:

• over half (56%) spoke the language daily (regardless of their levels of fluency) compared with 53% in the Welsh Language Use Survey 2013-15, and almost one in every five spoke the language weekly (19%, the same percentage as in 2013-15)
• these percentages varied by age, and were at their highest for those aged 3 to 15 and at their lowest for those aged 16 to 29
• a little under half (48%) considered themselves fluent in Welsh, compared with 47% in the Welsh Language Use Survey 2013-15, with the percentage increasing by age, being highest for those aged 65 or older and lowest for those aged 3 to 15
• 43% of Welsh speakers started to learn the language at home as young children, the same percentage as in 2013-15
• over two thirds of Welsh speakers agree (strongly agree or tend to agree) that speaking Welsh is an important part of who they are

Martin Parry
Telephone: 0300 025 0373
Email: stats.popcensus@gov.wales

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