Statistics Wales demography newsletter: March 2025

On 28 January, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published 2022-based national population projections (NPPs) for Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This is a full NPP release using the latest available population data including Census 2021 data and new assumptions for fertility, mortality, and migration, providing a range of variant projections. 

We have also published our own National population projections: 2022-based release for Wales.

Main points

• The population of Wales is projected to increase by 5.9% to 3.32 million by mid-2032, and by 10.3% to 3.46 million by 2047. In comparison, Wales’s population growth over the previous decade to mid-2022 was 2.0%.
• The projected growth in the population between mid-2022 and mid-2032 is driven by migration, with projected total net migration of 271,600 between mid-2022 and mid-2032. Natural change (births minus deaths) is projected to remain negative over the same period.
• The projected population increase for Wales between mid-2022 and mid-2032 is lower than for England, which is projected to increase by 7.8%, the most of all UK nations. However, the projected population increase for Wales between mid-2022 and mid-2032 is higher than that for Northern Ireland (2.1%) and Scotland (4.4%).
• The number of people in Wales aged 65 years or older is projected to increase by 19.6% to 806,000 between mid-2022 and mid-2032 and reach over one million by 2060.

If you have any questions, please contact us on stats.popcensus@gov.wales.

We plan to publish subnational population projections and subnational household projections for local authorities and national parks in summer/early autumn this year. 

To help us plan for the next set of subnational projection releases in 2025, we are seeking feedback from users on our plans, including user needs for population statistics more generally. We want to hear from as many of you as possible so if you would like to let us know your thoughts, please complete this questionnaire on Welsh subnational population and household projections by 11 April. Before you complete the survey, you may also wish to read our privacy notice.

Alternatively, if you have any other feedback or questions, please contact us on stats.popcensus@gov.wales.

On 11 December 2023, we published the latest household estimates for Wales: 2012 to 2023. This included estimates for mid-2021 to mid-2023, as well as a revised back series from mid-2012 to mid-2020 following Census 2021.

The latest household estimates are based on the ONS’s population estimates for mid-2023, which were published on 15 July 2023. The household estimates use data from the latest available censuses of the population about household formation rates and apply them to current population estimates. 

The methodology behind how we calculate household estimates has changed for this publication. Further information on this change can be found in the quality and methodology information section of our release. 

Main points

• Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, the estimated number of households in Wales increased by around 14,500 (1.1%) to 1.38 million, largely due to an increase in one-person households.
• Since 2011, the estimated number of households has increased by 5.6%.
• The estimated number of households increased for all local authorities in Wales between mid-2022 and mid-2023, other than in Merthyr Tydfil.
• At Wales level, the estimated number of people living in private households (or ‘household population’) increased by around 31,400 (1.0%) to 3.11 million between mid-2022 and mid-2023.
• In mid-2023 the estimated average household size for Wales was 2.26 persons per household, compared with 2.52 persons in mid-1991.

On 31 January, the ONS published Criteria for moving to admin-based population estimates as official estimates of population. This article sets out the criteria for acceptance of the admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) as the official estimates of the population.

The ABPEs are official statistics in development, currently published alongside the traditional-methods mid-year estimates. The ONS plans for the ABPEs to become the official population estimates for Wales and England in 2025, subject to an assessment against the criteria presented in the article.

On 26 February, the ONS published a Publication schedule for admin-based population and migration statistics, and will also be publishing a research update about international migration statistics.

On 31 January, the ONS published its latest update on population and migration statistics. This outlines their work on improvements to how they estimate population and migration, providing an update on the ONS’s plans and progress.

For information on Welsh language statistics, please see the Statistics Wales quarterly update.

Telephone: 0300 025 0373

Email: stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099