Statistics Wales Demography newsletter: June 2021

The 2018-based national park population projections were published on 5 May 2021. The projections provide an indication of the possible size and age structure of the population in the future for national parks in Wales for the period 2018 to 2043.

However, the release focusses on the first 10 years of the projection period, as projections tend to become increasingly uncertain in the longer-term, as trends may change over that timescale. The projections are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact of government policies, changing economic circumstances, or other factors (like the coronavirus pandemic) on future population.

Main points for 2018 to 2028

• The populations of the Brecon Beacons and Pembrokeshire Coast are projected to increase by 3.5% (1,190) and 2.5% (550) respectively.
• The population of Snowdonia is projected to decline by 1.9% (480).
• All three national parks are projected to see a large percentage increase in people aged 65 or over, and a larger increase in people aged 75 or over.

The 2018-based national park household projections were published on 5 May 2021. The projections provide an indication of the future number of households and their composition in the national parks’ for the period 2018 to 2043.

However, the release focusses on the first 10 years of the projection period, as projections tend to become increasingly uncertain in the longer-term, as trends may change over that timescale. The projections are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact of government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors (like the coronavirus pandemic) on future household population.

Main points for 2018 to 2028

• The numbers of households in all three national parks are projected to increase by 2028.
• The numbers of households are projected to increase by 4.8% (almost 730) in the Brecon Beacons, 5.3% (550) in Pembrokeshire Coast and by 0.3% (40) in Snowdonia.
• One-person households and two-person households with no children are projected to continue being the most common household type for all three national parks.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published ‘Early indicators of UK population size and age structure, 2020’ on its website on Friday 16 April. This is in advance of its usual annual publication of the mid-year estimates of the population, which is due to be published in summer 2021. The publication provides early indicators of the UK population only, and is not available for any of the constituent countries.

As at 30 June 2020

• The early indicator of UK population size suggests that by mid-2020, the UK population grew to 67.1 million, which represents a 0.5% annual increase from mid-2019 which would be the lowest annual increase since the year to mid-2003.
• Early indicators of the UK population at mid-2020 suggest that the population was 0.12% smaller than that projected for mid-2020 (in the 2018-based national population projections).
• The early indicators for mid-2020 suggest that for the oldest age group, 80 years and over, there is a larger difference (-0.67%) compared with the 2018-based national population projections. There are modest differences in the 70-79 year olds, 60-69 year olds, 30-39 year olds and 0-9 year olds as well.

To provide an indication of the potential size of the UK population for a more recent time point, the ONS has created five international migration scenarios for the six months to the end of 2020.

As at 31 December 2020

• For the scenario of 100,000 net migration, the population of the UK by the end of 2020 would be 0.15% larger than in mid-2020.
• For the scenario of negative 100,000 net migration, the population of the UK by the end of 2020 would be 102,000 (-0.15%) smaller than in mid-2020.

The ONS’ scenario-based end of year 2020 population figures should be used for indicative purposes only and are projections based on observed demographic behaviour and a range of potential international migration scenarios.  

Assumptions have been made to develop these statistics and users should be aware of these. The statistics published are intended to provide an early insight on the possible size, age and sex distribution of the UK population ahead of the full set of mid-year population estimates to be published in the summer. 

The ONS published the summary report ‘National and subnational population projections – user feedback: April 2021' on 19 April.

This contains an overview of responses to the invitation to provide feedback on the future timescales for national and subnational population projections.

As a result of user feedback and in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the plan is to publish a principal national population projection only for each UK constituent country and for the UK as a whole, with no variant projections. These are planned to be published in December 2021 (see the ONS release calendar where this will be pre-announced) and be titled ‘2020-based interim national population projections’ using an updated set of demographic assumptions.

The publication of these projections will include full details, guidance around their use and accompanying data. The use of the term ‘interim’ in the publication title is to reflect the interval between the 2020-based principal projections and subsequent projections, which will incorporate data relating to population statistics resulting from the 2021 Census. It also recognises this as a period of uncertainty in the mid-2020 base year and in setting long-term demographic assumptions following the coronavirus pandemic.

Decisions on future timescales for the subnational population projections and household projections in Wales will be taken by the Welsh Government. These decisions will be informed by this user feedback as well as local user engagement.

The ONS has recently published a series of articles providing an update to the latest developments in measuring international migration: Population and migration statistics system transformation - recent updates.

On 31 March, the Annual Population Survey (APS) results on the Welsh language for the year from January 2020 to December 2020 were published.

From mid-March 2020, the APS survey has been carried out by telephone only. The ONS is continuing to monitor the impact of the change in survey mode on APS estimates and intends to make further revisions to the APS data for 2020 (following revisions to July 2019 to June 2020 estimates, and to April 2019 to March 2020 estimates). One reason for a further revision is that the APS estimates are weighted to national population projections. As the current projections are 2018-based, they are based on demographic trends that pre-date the COVID-19 pandemic. The ONS is currently analysing the population totals used in the weighting process and intends to make adjustments where appropriate. The percentages published from the APS remain robust. However, numbers and changes in numbers should be treated with caution. This will particularly affect estimates for country of birth, nationality, ethnicity and disability.

The 2021 Census in Wales and in England was on Sunday 21 March.

The ONS, who is responsible for the census in Wales and in England, issued a press release on 4 May to report that 97% of households had responded to the 2021 Census across Wales and England. All local authorities have seen over 90% of households respond.

The ONS aims to publish the initial findings from the 2021 Census in Wales and England between March and April 2022.