Short-term output indicators: July to September 2020

Data showing the short term movements in the output of industries in the production, construction and market services sectors for July to September 2020.

Impact of coronavirus

The data for this period covers the coronavirus pandemic. Potential impacts as a result of this are discussed throughout the release.

Estimates for Wales are typically more volatile than the UK, and as a result comparison between the two should be made with caution, especially over the shorter term.

Main points

This chart shows the time series for the indices of production, construction, and market services since 1999. The overall trend is the index of market services and index of production have generally increased since 1999, but the index of construction has fluctuated over the same time period. In the latest quarter, all three indices have increased, following a large decrease in the previous quarter.

These estimates cover July to September 2020 which was during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Annual estimates are also included which relate to six months prior to, and six months of the pandemic period. Care should be taken when interpreting these indices – estimates for individual quarters can fluctuate and it is recommended that emphasis is based on longer term trends.

Index of Market Services

Compared to the previous quarter, the index of market services increased by 15.4% in Wales and by 15.1% in the UK.
The increase in Wales was largely accounted for by increases in Accommodation and Food Service Activities and Distribution.
The longer-term trends show a 7.2% decrease for both Wales and the UK in the year to September 2020, compared with the previous twelve months. These are the largest year-on-year decreases since the series began in 1998.
In Wales, eight of the nine Market Service industry indices decreased on an annual basis.

Index of Production

The Index of Production for Wales shows a 15.9% increase when compared to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 14.7% over the same period. The increase in Wales was largely accounted for by Transport Equipment and Electricity, Gas and Water Supply.
The longer-term trend for Wales shows a 4.0% decrease in the year to September 2020 on an annual basis. UK output decreased by 7.8% over the same period.

Index of Construction

The Index of Construction for Wales shows a 40.5% increase when comparing the latest quarter to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 41.2% over the same period.
The longer-term trend for Wales shows a 10.7% decrease in the year to September 2020 on an annual basis. UK output decreased by 11.9% over the same period.

Note

The full series has also been reweighted based on 2018 GVA weights (previously 2016 weights). While this has resulted in a shift across most industries, there has been no large impact on growth rates.

Reports