Wellbeing of Wales, 2024 - A Wales of cohesive communities

Author: Ian Jones

A Wales of cohesive communities: attractive, viable, safe and well-connected communities.

Indicators from the National Survey for Wales relating to cohesive communities have not been updated this year. For these indicators, additional analysis has been carried out to identify differences by different population groups. New data is available, however, for homelessness, and crime and justice. 

People who live in less deprived areas are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion. They are also more likely to feel safe after dark and be satisfied with their local area than people living in more deprived areas.

The indicators present a mixed picture according to someone’s age. Older people are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion, and are generally more likely to volunteer. However, older people are less likely to feel safe after dark, and less likely to be satisfied with access to good services and facilities. 

A substantially higher proportion of men than women feel safe after dark. A greater proportion of men than women volunteer.

Disabled people or people with a limiting long-term illness are less likely to feel safe after dark and less likely to be satisfied with access to good services and facilities. 

One indicator that presents a slightly different picture is being able to influence local decisions. Younger people and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people are more likely to feel that they can influence local decisions. There are no significant differences by area deprivation, sex or whether someone is a disabled person / has a limiting long-term illness. 

The percentage of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness has fallen, whilst the number of individuals in temporary accommodation has increased, and, despite falling in the past year, the estimated number of individuals sleeping rough as at June 2024 is over 30% higher compared to 2022 estimates. 

Around 7% of adults in Wales were victims of crime (excluding fraud) in 2023-24. Police recorded crime in Wales (excluding fraud) decreased by 4% in 2023-24 compared with the previous year, as did violence against the person.

The total number of police recorded hate crimes in Wales decreased by 4% in 2022/23. However, hate crimes where religion or transgender status was a motivating factor increased by 26% and 22% respectively.

Some of the indicators for cohesive communities are relatively recent measures collected in the National Survey for Wales. It is therefore difficult to comment confidently on changes over time. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic during this period, as well as changes in the way National Survey for Wales data is collected, also affect comparability with earlier data. However, a number of measures related to community cohesion and engagement appear to have exhibited positive change over recent years.

Community cohesion indicators had been broadly stable since 2016-17 until a sizeable increase in 2020-21. The same year also saw a positive step change in people feeling they can influence local decisions, although the overall figure remains low. Whether these increases will be sustained will not become clear until data is available for future years. 

There have been slight improvements over the long term in people’s satisfaction with their local area. People feeling safe after dark has remained relatively constant since first asked in 2016-17 and stood at 66% in 2021-22.

The percentage of people volunteering had been falling but is another indicator that has seen a recent increase. The national milestone to have 30% of people volunteering was reached in 2022-23.

Loneliness, based on a composite of six separate measures, has remained the same over recent years. Within the overall measure, the percentage that ‘miss having people around’ has followed a different pattern with a substantially increased percentage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 and 2021-22 before falling to previous levels in 2022-23.

Since legislation changed in 2015, 2023-24 was the second time that the rate for prevention of homelessness for at least 6 months dropped below 60% (along with 2022-23). Prior to this, homelessness had been successfully prevented in around two-thirds of cases since 2017-18.

Around half of people in Wales think crime has risen a lot nationally in recent years. This figure has returned to pre-pandemic levels after a drop in 2022-23. However, since 2015-16, there have been general downward trends in the proportion of adults who were victims of crime (excluding fraud), and victims of personal crime.

Nearly two-thirds of adults (64%) agreed with all three measures of community cohesion (belonging to the local area, people from different backgrounds getting on well together, and treating each other with respect and consideration) in 2021-22 when data on this indicator was last collected by the National Survey for Wales. This is an increase on pre-pandemic years and a slight drop since 2020-21. 95% of adults agreed with at least one statement relating to community cohesion in 2021-22. 

These figures have been broadly stable since they were first collected in 2012 until the sizeable increase in 2020-21. Whether the increases in 2020-21 and 2021-22 are a short-term effect of the pandemic (with communities coming together locally) and whether they will be sustained or partly sustained over the longer term will not become clear until data is available for future years. 

There is a clear trend towards increased community cohesion as deprivation in the area falls. Around half of people living in the most deprived areas agreed with all three statements, compared with around seven out of ten in the least deprived areas.

Older people are more likely to agree with all three measures of community cohesion. The proportion agreeing with all three statements in 2021-22 ranged from 57% of 16-24 year olds to 77% of those aged 75 and above. 

There is no statistically significant difference between men and women, or by ethnicity, agreeing with all three statements.

Figure 5.1: Percentage of people agreeing with statements about their local area, by year [Note 1]

Image

Description of Figure 5.1: Line chart showing percentage of people who agree with three statements about community cohesion in their local area from 2012-13 until 2021-22. In 2021-22, 84% agreed people in the area from different backgrounds get on well together; 82% agree people treat each other with respect and consideration; and 79% agreed they belong to the local area.

Source: National Survey for Wales: Welsh Government

[Note 1] The years 2015-16, 2017-18 and 2019-20 have no data associated with them.

Two-thirds of adults feel safe in various situations after dark.

The national indicator is the percentage of people that agreed with four statements about feeling safe after dark at home, walking in their local area, travelling by public transport or travelling by car. In 2021-22, 66% of people felt safe in all four situations.  These results have remained relatively constant across the years since first asked in 2016-17.

There is a clear trend towards an increased feeling of safety as deprivation in the area falls, with 72% of people who live in the least deprived areas feeling safe in all situations compared with 54% of people who live in the most deprived areas.

There is also a clear difference by sex, with men feeling safer (81%) than women (51%).

Disabled people or people with a limiting long-term illness, plus people aged 65 years or older, were also less likely to feel safe after dark.

Figure 5.2: Percentage of people agreeing with statements about feeling safe after dark, 2021-22 [Note 1]

Image

Description of Figure 5.2: A bar chart showing the percentage of people agreeing with statements about feeling safe after dark in 2021-22. 96% felt safe at home, 97% felt safe travelling by car, 75% felt safe walking in the local area and 76% felt safe travelling by public transport. 

Source: National Survey for Wales

[Note 1] 27% of people who were asked said 'Don't know' to the question about public transport and were excluded from the analysis. As a result, the proportion of people feeling safe in all 4 situations is lower than the individual results would suggest.

In 2021-22, 89% of people said they are satisfied with their local area as a place to live, slightly higher than the results in previous years. 

People living in the least deprived 20% areas of Wales were more likely to be satisfied with their local area than people living in the 40% most deprived areas.

There were no links found between satisfaction with local area and sex, ethnicity, age, or being a disabled person / having a limiting long-term illness.

Access to good services and facilities

In 2021-22, 86% of people were satisfied that they were able to get to or access the services and facilities they need within a 15 to 20 minute walk from their home, slightly down on 2020-21 but an increase since 2018 19 (81%). The latest decrease was not statistically significant. 

This varied by the type of area with a significantly lower percentage of people from rural areas having access to good services and facilities compared to those from urban areas (83% vs 87%). Unsurprisingly, occupants of hamlets and isolated buildings were the least satisfied with their access to good services and facilities, with only 77% showing as satisfied on this indicator. 

There is a clear trend by age, with younger people more likely to be satisfied with their access to good services and facilities than older people. 

There is also a significant difference according to being a disabled person / having a limiting long-term illness (80% satisfied) or not (89% satisfied).

Figure 5.3: Access to good services and facilities by area, 2021-22

Image

Description of Figure 5.3: Bar chart showing percentage of people who are satisfied with their access to good services and facilities. 87% of people in urban areas are satisfied compared with 77% of people who live in hamlets and isolated dwellings.

Source: National Survey for Wales

Fewer than 60% of people (in 2022-23) said that municipal services such as community centres, secondary schools, libraries and youth or sports clubs were available in their local area. In contrast, over 80% said public transport links, shops and pubs were all within a 15 to 20 minute walk from their home. Furthermore, for each of the aforementioned municipal services there has also been a fall in the percentage of people saying they were available in their local area since 2018-19 as has been the case for health centre / GP surgery, chemist, post office and cash machine services.

For the most recent year for which data is available (2021-22), the proportion of people who feel they can influence local decisions has increased, although the overall figure remains low.

In 2021-22, 30% of people felt that they could influence decisions affecting their local area compared with 26% in 2020-21 and 19% in 2018-19. This is a marked increase since before 2020. It may reflect real change as a result of the pandemic but requires monitoring in future survey years.

People aged between 16 and 24 years are more likely to feel that they can influence decisions affecting their local area than any other age group.

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people were also more likely to feel able to influence decisions in their local area.

Controlling for other factors, there were no significant differences found for sex, whether someone is a disabled person / has a limiting long-term illness, or for area deprivation.

Figure 5.4: Percentage of people who feel they can influence decisions affecting local area, 2012-13 to 2021-22

Image

Description of Figure 5.4: Line chart showing the percentage of people who feel they can influence decisions affecting their local area. In 2021-22, 30% reported they felt they could influence decisions, this compares with 19% in 2018-19. The 2021-22 result is higher than in all years since first asked in 2012-13.

Source: National Survey for Wales

Results from online data collected as part of the National Survey for Wales 2022-23 showed that 30% of people said they volunteered for clubs or organisations. This compares with 26% in 2019-20 (when the survey took place face-to-face) and 29% in 2021-22 (when the volunteering questions were asked as part of the online module for the first time). In all years people most commonly volunteered for charities and sports clubs. 

In 2022-23, a greater proportion of men (32%) than women (27%) volunteered, as did a greater proportion of non-disabled people and people without a limiting long term illness (31%) compared with disabled people and people with a limiting long-term illness (26%).

Volunteering tends to increase with age, peaking among 65-74 year olds (35%) before falling slightly among those aged 75 years and above (32%). Those aged 16 to 24 years are the least likely to volunteer (24%).

There are no statistically significant differences by ethnicity.

Figure 5.5: Percentage of people volunteering by type of organisation, 2022-23

Image

Description of Figure 5.5: Bar chart showing the percentage of people volunteering, by type of organisation, in 2022-23. People are most likely to volunteer for charitable organisations (10%), or sports clubs (8%).

Source: National Survey for Wales

The national milestone for the volunteering indicator is to “increase the percentage of people who volunteer by 10% by 2050, demonstrating Wales’s status as a volunteering nation”. This means reaching a figure of 30% by 2050. This milestone was met in 2022-23 but, with the uncertainty around how sustainable the increases seen during the COVID-19 pandemic will be, it is not yet clear if this level will be maintained.

The National Survey for Wales collects data using the De Jong Gierveld loneliness scale which covers six measures of emotional and social loneliness. 

In 2022-23, based on all six measures, 13% of people in Wales were found to be lonely, the same as in the past 2 years (2021-22 and 2020-21) and lower than in 2019-20. However, there are some marked variations in the percentage of people who say they feel lonely across the individual measures: 

• in 2019-20, 36% of people said they missed having people around; this increased substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic (71% in 2020-21 and 53% in 2021-22), before falling back again to 36% in 2022-23
• the percentage of people who report that they have people they can trust completely increased from 59% in 2019-20 to 67% in 2020-21; this was maintained in 2021-22 and 2022-23
• from 2019-20 to 2021 22 there were increases in the percentage of people who said they had enough people they felt close to, and enough people they could rely on; the figures for 2022-23 were slightly lower but not a statistically significant change from 2020-21

The most recent results (2022-23) from the National Survey for Wales suggest that younger adults (aged 16 to 44) are more likely to feel lonely than those aged 65 and above.

People living in material deprivation, and individuals with a mental health condition or in poorer general health, are more likely to be lonely.

There are also differences by ethnicity, with Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic people being more likely to be lonely.

A Wales Centre for Public Policy review into loneliness inequalities review found that: 

Migrants, members of ethnic and racially minoritised groups, sexual minorities, transgender and gender non-conforming individuals, disabled people, those in poor physical or mental health, carers, individuals with low socio-economic status, and unemployed people, all disproportionately experience loneliness.

Source: Barreto et al 2023: 4

The impact of these inequalities can be exacerbated where they intersect.

Figure 5.6: Percentage of people feeling lonely by reason and year

Image

Description of Figure 5.6: Bar chart showing the results for 2019-20 to 2022-23 and the six questions asked to create the measure of loneliness. Overall, the responses to the statements show that people are less lonely in 2022-23 compared with 2019-20.

Source: National Survey for Wales

A new national indicator was set in 2021 which will measure the status of digital inclusion. A new set of questions that align with the principles of a minimum digital living standard are undergoing cognitive testing for inclusion in future waves of the National Survey for Wales. The questions have been informed by research commissioned by the Welsh Government and undertaken by the University of Liverpool. Once finalised, the questions will provide data to measure digital exclusion across Wales and inform the national indicator.  

In the meantime, results from the National Survey for Wales in 2022-23 show that 93% of adults personally use the internet at home, work or elsewhere, which remains unchanged from 2021-22 and 2020-21. 

The National Survey for Wales data also shows that while almost all people aged 16 to 64 years use the internet, this decreases to 89% of 65 to 74 years olds and 68% of those aged 75 years and above.

The survey also asks questions about digital activity and the skills people have. These are grouped into 5 types of skill:

• handling information and content 
• communicating
• transacting
• problem solving
• being safe and legal online

The latest data is from 2021-22, where 78% of internet users had performed activities that related to all 5 of these skills in the past 3 months compared with 73% in 2019-20.

In the past year the percentage of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness has fallen, whilst the number of individuals in temporary accommodation has increased, and the estimated number of individuals sleeping rough is over 30% higher in June 2024 compared to June 2022.

Prevention of homelessness

Among households in Wales threatened with homelessness between April 2023 and March 2024, homelessness was successfully prevented for at least 6 months in 58% of cases. This is similar to the proportion of 59% for the period April 2022 to March 2023. 

Since legislation changed in 2015, 2023-24 was the second time that the rate for prevention for at least 6 months dropped below 60% (along with 2022-23). Prior to this, homelessness had been successfully prevented in around two-thirds of cases since 2017-18.

Relief from homelessness 

The proportion of households successfully relieved from homelessness remained relatively stable from 2016-17 to 2019-20. However, it has been decreasing since then, from 41% in 2019-20 to 26% in 2023-24.

Figure 5.7: Percentage of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness, 2015-16 to 2023-24

Image

Description of Figure 5.7: Line chart showing the percentages of households successfully prevented and relieved from homelessness in Wales between 2015-16 and 2023-24. The chart shows the percentages of households successfully prevented from homelessness in Wales remained relatively constant between 2015-16 and 2021-22 before falling in 2022-23 and remaining at a similar level for 2023-24. Similarly, the percentages of households successfully relieved from homelessness in Wales was also stable between 2016-17 and 2020-21 after which there was a drop in 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Temporary accommodation

Monthly information shows as of 30 June 2024, 11,301 individuals were in temporary accommodation, a 4% increase on the previous year, thereby continuing the increases observed in the number of individuals in temporary accommodation over the past few years. Around a quarter of these (2,881) were dependent children aged under 16, a decrease of 14% from the previous year.

The most common type of temporary accommodation was bed and breakfast and hotels, housing 3,670 individuals.

Rough sleeping

As of 30 June 2024, there were an estimated 153 individuals sleeping rough throughout Wales. This is 12% less than the estimated 173 individuals sleeping rough at the same period the previous year but over 30% higher than the estimated 117 individuals sleeping rough as at 30 June 2022.

Cardiff, Ceredigion and Newport were the local authorities with the highest estimates of rough sleepers as of 30 June 2024. 

A new national indicator was set in 2021 which will measure the percentage of people who have confidence in the justice system. Data is not yet collected for this indicator but is in development. 

In the last year police recorded crime in Wales has decreased whilst the proportion of adults who are victims of crime has remained relatively stable.  

Victims of crime and perceptions of crime

In 2023-24, 6.9% of adults in Wales were victims of crime (similar to the 6.6% the previous year) and 1.9% were victims of personal crime (down from 2.5% the previous year). There has been a general downward trend in the available time series from 2015-16 when the percentages were 14.7% and 4.4%.

Latest data on perceptions of crime in 2023-24 shows around half of people in Wales (49%) believe crime has risen a lot nationally in recent years. While this has increased from 41% in 2022-23, it remains lower than the pre-pandemic levels of 53% in 2018-19 and 2019-20 (there is no available data for 2020-21 or 2021-22). 

The percentage of those believing crime in their local area has risen a lot is much smaller (17%). This figure has returned to pre-pandemic levels after dropping to 11% in 2022-23.

Police recorded crime

Police recorded crime in Wales (excluding fraud) decreased by 4% in 2023-24 compared with the previous year. Violence against the person also decreased by 4%, although the rate per 1,000 of the population remains considerably higher than a decade ago (Figure 5.8). 

There were increases in 3 of the 9 main offence categories in 2023-24 compared with the previous year, including possession of weapons offences (increased by 11%) and theft offences (increased by 8%). The increase in theft offences was, in part, driven by a 34% increase in shoplifting. 

Among the other main offence categories, there were notable decreases in public order offences (19% decrease) and drug offences (15% decrease). There were also decreases in criminal damage and arson (8% decrease), robbery (7% decrease) and sexual offences (5% decrease).

Reported fraud and computer misuse offences increased by 5% in Wales between 2022-23 and 2023-24 although the rate remained the same at 5 offences per 1,000 population in Wales.

Figure 5.8: Police recorded crime per 1,000 population, 2002-03 to 2023-24

Image

Description of Figure 5.8: Line chart showing the rates of police recorded crime per 1,000 population in Wales between 2002-03 and 2023-24. The chart shows theft offences have seen the biggest change in rates, falling from more than 50 per 1,000 population in 2002-03 to around 20 per 1,000 population in recent years. Rates of violence against the person offences had been increasing since 2013-14 and since 2018-19 have the highest rate of those shown, although it decreased in 2023-24. Criminal damage and arson saw a fall in rates until 2016-17 but since this time have been stable. Public order offences had the lowest rate per 1,000 population until 2021-22 when the rate rose above that of criminal damage and arson.

Source: Police Recorded Crime, Office for National Statistics

Hate crime

There was a 4% decrease in recorded hate crimes across Wales in 2022-23 compared with 2021-22. There were 6,041 recorded hate crimes across the four Welsh police force areas, of which:

• 62% were race hate crimes
• 20% were sexual orientation hate crimes
• 5% were religion hate crimes
• 14% were disability hate crimes
• 5% were transgender hate crimes

Compared with 2021-22, there were increases in the number of hate crimes with religion or transgender status as recorded motivating factors, while there were decreases in hate crimes with disability, race and sexual orientation as recorded motivating factors:

• 8% decrease in sexual orientation hate crimes
• 4% decrease in race hate crimes
• 2% decrease in disability hate crimes
• 22% increase in transgender hate crimes
• 26% increase in religion hate crimes

Whilst providing a good measure of the hate crime-related demand on the police, due to police forces making significant improvements in how they record crime since 2014, as well as improvements in identifying what constitutes a hate crime, police recorded crime figures do not currently provide reliable trends in hate crime. Figures from the police should also not be seen as a measure of prevalence of hate crime.

What factors are linked to people feeling safe in their local area?

What factors are linked to people being satisfied with the area that they live in?

What factors are linked to people feeling able to influence decisions affecting their local area?

What factors are linked to people agreeing that their local area has a sense of community?

Loneliness (National Survey for Wales): April 2022 to March 2023 

Loneliness Inequalities Evidence Review (Wales Centre for Public Policy)

Towards a Welsh Minimum Digital Living Standard: citizen and stakeholder perspectives

The following data sources were used in this narrative:

Homelessness

Homelessness statistics

Homelessness accommodation provision and rough sleeping monthly management information

Crime

Crime Survey for England and Wales perception data (Office for National Statistics (ONS))

Personal crime incidence open data tables (ONS)

Police recorded crime open data tables (Home Office)

Police recorded crime 2023-24 (ONS)

Other data

National Survey for Wales