This research report explores the feasibility of providing an estimate of children potentially missing from state education using linked administrative data in the SAIL Databank.
This is the latest release
This report was revised on 20 November 2024, after initial publication on 18 September 2024.
Since publication a problem emerged with an underlying table used to produce the estimates. This meant the resident population was over-estimated, as well as the number of children missing from state education. This was particularly the case for Gwynedd. A new version of the underlying table has been used in the revised analysis.
Furthermore, a detailed review of the data used for the estimate indicated that not all relevant records were being selected from the PLASC/EOTAS data. This also led to a slight over-estimate of the number of children missing from state education. A small amendment to the method was required to correct this.
The estimates have been re-produced using the new underlying table and the amended method. The revised estimates of the resident child population and those missing from state education are both slightly lower overall, whilst both are notably lower for Gwynedd.
Main findings
Our approach found approximately 6.0% of children (24,000) in GP registration data could not be found in state education records on 20 April 2021.
Possible reasons for children not found in state education records
- Children educated in independent schools (approx. 8,000).
- Electively home educated children (approx. 4,000).
- Children educated in England.
- Data linkage issues, possibly due to discrepancies in recording of name, address or date of birth.
- Over-coverage in GP registration data (e.g. due to children moving away from Wales but not de-registering with their GP).
- Other reasons.
These factors suggest the overall percentage of children missing from the education data represents an upper band estimate of children missing from state education.
There could be a wide variation of children missing from state education between local authorities. These differences may be partly explained by the presence of independent schools and proximity to schools in England of some local authorities.
The approach also suggests a difference between school ages (possibly between about 4.5% to 8.1% increasing with age).
This research has been undertaken as part of Administrative Data Research (ADR) Wales planned programme of work 2022-2026 (ADR Wales) funded by the Economic Social Research Council.
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