Statistics Wales Demography newsletter: September 2024

On 15 July, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published mid-2023 population estimates for Wales and England. The Welsh Government has published a bulletin summarising the mid-2023 population estimates for Wales. StatsWales tables have also been updated.

Estimates for mid-2022 have been revised by the ONS to account for updated estimates of international migration for Wales and England. This means that the population of Wales in mid-2022 is now estimated to be around 1,000 people higher than the figure originally published on 23 November 2023.

The mid-year estimates refer to the population on 30 June of the reference year and are published annually.

Main points

• On 30 June 2023, it was estimated that around 3,164,000 people were living in Wales, an increase of 1.0% since mid-2022, or around 32,000 more people. 
• This is the same percentage increase seen in England between mid-2022 and mid-2023.
• The population increase in Wales between mid-2022 and mid-2023 has been driven by an increase in net international and internal migration.
• People aged 65 years or older were estimated to account for just over a fifth (21.6%, or 682,000 people) of the total population in Wales in mid-2023.
• The local authority in Wales with the largest percentage population increase between mid-2022 and mid-2023 was Cardiff, an increase of 3.4%. This was the second largest increase of any local authority in Wales and England between mid-2022 and mid-2023.

As well as the mid-2023 population estimates, the ONS has also published Quality and Methodology Information, and an update to the methodology guide (ONS) to accompany the latest official estimates. ONS have also published additional analysis on trends and patterns in births and fertility.

If you have any questions, please contact us on stats.popcensus@gov.wales. 

Also on 15 July, the ONS published updated data tables of UK population estimates for mid-2011 to mid-2022. This follows the National Records of Scotland’s (NRS’s) release of rebased population estimates for Scotland drawing on Scotland’s 2022 Census.

Mid-year admin-based population estimates are being produced by the ONS for local authorities in Wales and England. These are official statistics in development (Office for Statistics Regulation) while the ONS refines its methods and the data sources used. They do not replace the official mid-year population estimates and should not be used for decision-making. These outputs must not be reproduced without this warning.

The ONS is aiming for their admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) to become official mid-year population estimates in 2025. They will undertake engagement in autumn 2024 to gather feedback on the new approach including with local authorities so they can draw on local insight as they improve the estimates. This user feedback will be used as part of the criteria to support the decision on when the ABPEs will become the official mid-year population estimates. They have also requested an assessment of the ABPEs (Office for Statistics Regulation) and are working to meet the standards expected of accredited official statistics (Office for Statistics Regulation) by summer 2025.

In mid-2023, the admin-based population estimates (ONS) for Wales were 0.3% lower than the official population estimates. Differences between the methods and the data sources used mean it is not expected that the ABPEs will match the accredited official population estimates exactly. The ABPEs use innovative new methods and a wider range of data sources taking account of quality limitations in the data. Population stocks are produced independently for each year, therefore any error in one year is less likely to be rolled forward to the next. Stocks can use admin data sources so that methods are not reliant on census data. The ONS plans to publish case studies in the autumn to demonstrate their confidence in the new approach.

More information on ABPEs is available in the ONS’s article understanding mid-year admin-based population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales. A companion article sets out the details of the developments in data sources (ONS). Further information on the ABPEs relating to quality assurance, their appropriate usage, and strengths and limitations, is available in the Mid-year admin-based population estimates in England and Wales Quality and Methodology Information report (ONS).

The ONS has also published a blog explaining what is driving population growth and what progress the ONS is making towards producing new estimates which better meet user needs.

The ONS aims to release a full set of UK population estimates for mid-2023 in autumn 2024. This will include estimates for Northern Ireland produced by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency and estimates for Scotland produced by National Records of Scotland.

The ONS has published a response to user feedback on the proposed 2022-based national, subnational and household projections. This outlines what users would like to see in these releases, such as specific variants or new dataset formats. For further details, see ONS’ full response summary document.

For information on Welsh language statistics, please see the Statistics Wales quarterly update.

Telephone: 0300 025 0373

Email: stats.popcensus@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099