Welsh language data from the Annual Population Survey: 2022

The census of population is the key source used to measure the number of Welsh speakers in Wales. However, as the Annual Population Survey (APS) provides quarterly results, it is a useful source to look at trends in Welsh language ability between censuses.

The 2021 Census results for the number of Welsh speakers were published in December 2022, these results continue to be lower than the estimates of Welsh language ability on household surveys such as the APS, however this is the first time that the census has estimated declining numbers of Welsh speakers at the same time as the APS has estimated an increasing number of Welsh speakers. 

Users should note that there are important differences between these data sources such as comparing census to survey data, differences in how the data is collected and their timeliness and these should be taken into consideration when choosing which data source best meets their needs. This workplan details further work to improve our understanding of these differences. 

Main results

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• For the year ending 31 December 2022, the Annual Population Survey estimated that 29.5% of people aged three or older were able to speak Welsh. This figure equates to around 900,600 people.
• This is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous year (year ending 31 December 2021), but equating to around 4,900 more people.
• The chart shows how these figures have been gradually increasing each year since March 2010 (25.2%, 731,000), after they had been gradually declining from 2001 to 2007. The number of people reporting being able to speak Welsh decreased from December 2018 to March 2020, before generally increasing again since then. This increase should be treated with caution due to the change of survey mode since mid-March 2020 because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. See ‘Changes to the survey’ below. 
• Children and young people aged 5 to 15 were more likely to report that they could speak Welsh (51.3%, 250,400) than any other age group. This is consistent over time but the percentage of children and young people aged 5 to 15 years who can speak Welsh has been decreasing in general since the beginning of 2019.
• The highest estimated numbers of Welsh speakers are found in Cardiff (94,200), Carmarthenshire (90,900) and Gwynedd (88,400). 
• The lowest estimated numbers of Welsh speakers are in Blaenau Gwent (9,800) and Merthyr Tydfil (12,700). 
• The highest estimated percentages of Welsh speakers can be found in Gwynedd (74.2%) and the Isle of Anglesey (62.8%).
• The lowest estimated percentages of Welsh speakers are in Blaenau Gwent (14.5%), Monmouthshire (17.3%) a Torfaen (17.6%).
• 15.0% (458,800) of people aged three or older reported that they spoke Welsh daily, 5.6% (171,100) weekly and 7.4% (225,800) less often. Around 1.5% (44,900) reported that they never spoke Welsh despite being able to speak it, with the remaining 70.5% not able to speak Welsh. 
• 33.4% (1,019,700) reported that they could understand spoken Welsh, 25.7% (784,500) could read and 23.7% (723,300) could write Welsh. 

Note

The Annual Population Survey (APS) is a UK-wide survey conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The APS, which began in 2004, is compiled from interviews for the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Details about how the survey is developed and carried out can be found on the Office for National Statistics website.

The APS results should not be compared with census results, nor used to measure progress towards the Welsh Government target of a million Welsh speakers by 2050. The Welsh language strategy, Cymraeg 2050, clearly states that this target was based on census data and that progress towards this target will be monitored using census of population data.

The census results and APS results for 2001, 2011 and 2021 have been included on the chart above to show the differences between the two sources at the same time periods. Differences in the estimates of Welsh language ability between the census and household surveys such as the APS are longstanding, and both the ONS ('Differences in estimates of Welsh Language Skills') and the Welsh Government ('Welsh language data from the Annual Population Survey: 2001 to 2018') have explored possible reasons for some of these differences in the past. For example, the census is a statutory self-completion questionnaire while the APS is a voluntary survey, which uses face-to-face and telephone interviews.  A blog published by the Chief Statistician in 2019, discussed briefly how to interpret the Welsh language data from the APS.

While household surveys typically provide us with higher estimates of Welsh-speaking ability, this is the first time that the census has estimated declining numbers of Welsh speakers at the same time as the APS has estimated an increasing number of Welsh speakers.
 
Following the publication of Census 2021, we are prioritising work to examine the differences between these data sources in more detail, including the exploration of innovative approaches such as data linking, to ensure we have a coherent evidence base which can be used for decision making.

We have published a workplan which outlines the work that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Welsh Government are planning to undertake during 2023-24 and beyond to improve our understanding of the main survey and administrative data sources used to produce statistics about the Welsh language. This workplan has been accompanied by a blog published by the Chief Statistician. 

Changes to the survey

Following government advice regarding the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Annual Population Survey as well as all other Office for National Statistics (ONS) face-to-face studies about people, families and households were suspended. Further details of these changes can be found in this statement on the ONS website.

From mid-March 2020, the APS survey has been carried out by telephone only. A change in how a survey is administered can affect survey results. This set of results cover the period from October 2020 to September 2021, therefore all the interviews were carried out by telephone. 

By comparing those who completed the survey over the telephone with those who completed the survey face-to-face in the period before March 2020, respondents did appear to be more likely to state that they could speak Welsh when answering the survey over the telephone. 

At present, it is not possible to say whether any recent changes in Welsh language ability is as a result of the change in the way the survey is conducted, or real changes in the population’s ability in Welsh. The results should therefore be interpreted with caution.