Short-term output indicators: January to March 2023

These estimates cover January to March 2023 and annual estimates for April to March 2023.

Estimates for individual quarters can fluctuate, and estimates for Wales are typically more volatile than for the UK, therefore a consideration of longer-term trends and comparisons are recommended.

Figure 1: Short-term output indicators, January 2001 to March 2023

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Description of Figure 1: This chart shows the time series for the indices of production, construction, and market services since 2000. The overall trend is the index of market services and index of production have generally increased since 2000, but the index of construction has fluctuated over the same time period. All indices experienced a steep fall in 2020 Q2 due to the coronavirus pandemic, however have since been recovering or are fully recovered.

Source: Short-term output indicators, Welsh Government and the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

Main points

All three indices for Wales increased on an annual basis; the latest four quarters (April 2022 to March 2023). On a quarterly basis, construction and market services showed increases and production showed a decrease. This follows a period of change throughout the pandemic with the largest quarterly decreases on record in April to June 2020 (which included part of the initial lockdown period) and the subsequent largest increases on record during July to September 2020 (reflecting the easing of restrictions over the summer months).

Index of Market Services

• The longer-term trend shows a 1.9% increase for Wales and a 2.9% increase for the UK in the year to March 2023, compared with the previous twelve months.
• In Wales, six of the nine Market Service industry indices increased on an annual basis.
• The Index of Market Services for Wales shows a 0.5% increase when compared to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 0.5% over the same period.

Index of Production

• The longer-term trend shows a 0.4% increase for Wales and a 3.0% decrease for the UK in the year to March 2023, compared with the previous twelve months.  
• The Index of Production for Wales shows a 3.4% decrease when compared to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 0.1% over the same period.

Index of Construction

• The longer-term trend shows a 20.5% increase for Wales and a 5.6% increase for the UK in the year to March 2023, compared with the previous twelve months.  
• The Index of Construction for Wales shows a 8.7% increase when comparing the latest quarter to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 0.4% over the same period.

Future of this publication

In May 2023 we shared our plans to cease the publication of this release given the Office for National Statistics’ release of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data for Wales and the English regions. However, ONS have since announced that they have paused their quarterly regional GDP publication. As a result, we will be continuing with the publication of STOI during this period, to ensure there is no gap in the availability of economic data for Wales. We will continue to inform users of our plans.