Participation of young people in education and the labour market: 2020 and 2021 (provisional)

Final estimates for 2020 are provided along with provisional estimates for 2021 which use the best data currently available for each aspect of participation; this includes some final data, some provisional data and some modelling.

This release provides the definitive source for estimates of the proportion of young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) in Wales. It also contains data for one of the 46 national well-being indicators.

Final estimates for 2020 and provisional estimates for 2021 cover part of the period of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Some of the changes observed may result from conditions brought about by the pandemic. For example, delayed or missed learning, changes to examinations and assessments and changing labour market conditions during the period of the pandemic.

There is additional uncertainty around these estimates, owing to issues with some of the data sources used to derive them. An explanation is provided in the section containing quality information.

16 to 18 year olds

• Participation of 16 to 18 year olds in education or training decreased from 78.0% in 2020 to 76.3% in 2021.
• The proportion in employment increased from 32.0% in 2020 to 35.3% in 2021.
• Final estimates for 2020 indicate that the proportion who were NEET remained unchanged between 2019 and 2020 at 11.7%. Provisional estimates suggest that this proportion then increased to 13.6% in 2021, the highest level on record. This increase is largely driven by an increase in the economic inactivity rate (excluding students) for 16 to 18 year olds, though there was also a slight increase in unemployment.

19 to 24 year olds

• The proportion of 19 to 24 year olds in education or training has increased from 38.4% in 2020 to 41.9% in 2021. This is the highest level on record.
• The proportion in employment decreased slightly from 62.2% in 2020 to 62.0% in 2021.
• Final estimates for 2020 indicate that the proportion who were NEET decreased slightly from 16.1% in 2019 to 15.8% in 2020. Provisional estimates suggest that the proportion then increased to 16.3% in 2021.

Chart 1 shows the trends in participation in education or training, and in employment for 16 to 18 year olds since 2003.

Prior to 2008, the proportion of 16 to 18 year olds in education or training remained broadly unchanged at 74% - 76%. Following the start of the recession in 2008, there was an increase in the proportion of 16 to 18 year olds in education or training, to levels around 80%. Between 2014 and 2021 the proportion gradually decreased to stand at 76.3% in 2021.

In contrast, the proportion of 16 to 18 year olds in employment decreased overall from 2004, in particular decreasing from 44.4% in 2006 to 27.9% in 2011. The proportion increased between 2011 and 2018 then decreased by 6.5 percentage points to 32.0% between 2018 and 2020. This was followed by a 3.2 percentage point increase to 35.3% in 2021.

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(p) Provisional

Note: An individual may be in both education/training and employment.

Participation of adults and young people on StatsWales

Employment

• In 2021, 35.3% of 16 to 18 year olds were in full or part-time employment.
• Approximately 25.1% of 16 to 18 year olds were estimated to be engaged in some type of education or training and in employment in 2021, an increase compared to 21.7% in 2020. Most of these were students in full-time education who were also working part-time.
• In 2021, 10.1% of 16 to 18 year olds were in full or part-time employment but not in education or training, a decrease from 10.3% in 2020.

Education and training

• In total, 76.3% of 16 to 18 year olds were engaged in some kind of education or training (full or part-time) in 2021, a decrease from 78.0% in 2020.
• Participation in full-time education was 64.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from 66.9% in 2020.
• A higher proportion of females aged 16 to 18 were in full-time education in 2021 – 67.8% compared with 61.7% of males.
• By single year of age, 72.8% of all 16 year olds were undertaking full-time education in 2021 compared with 66.8% of 17 year olds and 54.0% of 18 year olds. 
• Participation in training was higher for males than for females. In total, 6,500 16 to 18 year olds were engaged in training (both work-based learning courses and job-related training) in 2021. This is approximately 7.7% of all males in this age group compared with 4.6% of females.

Not in education, employment or training (NEET)

• An estimated 14,200 16 to 18 year olds (13.6%) were NEET in 2021, compared to 11,900 (11.7%) in 2020.
• The number of 16 to 18 year olds who were NEET comprised of 4,400 (4.2%) unemployed young people and 9,800 (9.4%) who were economically inactive (excluding students) in 2021 compared to 4,100 (4.0%) unemployed young people and 7,800 (7.6%) who were economically inactive (excluding students) in 2020.
• 14.7% of males aged 16 to 18 were NEET in 2021, an increase of 4.0 percentage points compared to 2020. 12.4% of females were NEET in 2021 compared to 12.6% in 2020.

Chart 2 shows the trends in participation in education or training, and in employment for 19 to 24 year olds since 2003.

The proportion in education or training remained broadly unchanged over this period at around 37% - 39%, before increasing by 3.5 percentage points between 2020 and 2021 to stand at 41.9%. This is the highest level on record.

In contrast, the proportion in employment decreased after the 2008 recession until 2010. It then increased each year from 2012 to reach 65.9% in 2017 before decreasing again to 62.0% in 2021.

Image

(p) Provisional

Note: An individual may be in both education/training and employment.

Participation of adults and young people on StatsWales

Employment

• In 2021, 62.0% of 19 to 24 year olds were estimated to be in full or part-time employment.
• 41.8% of 19 to 24 year olds were in full or part-time employment but not in education or training in 2021.
• 20.1% of 19 to 24 year olds were engaged in some type of education or training and in employment in 2021. Most of these were either students in full-time education who were also working part-time, students in training who were also working full-time or students in full-time education who were also working full-time.

Education and training

• In total, 41.9% of 19 to 24 year olds were engaged in some kind of education or training (full or part-time) in 2021. This is the highest level on record.
• 32.2% of 19 to 24 year olds were in full-time education in 2021, up from 28.8% in 2020.
• A higher proportion of females, 35.7%, were in full-time education compared with 29.1% of males aged 19 to 24 in 2021. 
• There were 12,100 (5.2%) 19 to 24 year olds engaged in training (both work-based learning courses and job-related training) in 2021, with participation amongst females at 5.1% and for males 5.4%.
• Participation in full-time education decreased with age. Of all 19 year olds, 57.9% were in full-time education in 2021 compared with 22.9% of 22 year olds and 10.2% of 24 year olds.

Not in education, employment or training (NEET)

• An estimated 37,800 of 19 to 24 year olds (16.3%) were NEET in 2021, an increase compared to 15.8% in 2020.
• 15.9% of females aged 19 to 24 were NEET in 2021, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to 2020. 16.7% of males in were NEET 2021 compared to 17.2% in 2020 
• The 37,800 19 to 24 year olds estimated to be NEET in 2021 comprised of 10,700 (4.6%) unemployed young people and 27,100 (11.7%) who were economically inactive (excluding students). Both proportions increased slightly on 2020 (4.2% and 11.6%, respectively).

Chart 3 compares participation in full-time education by level of study in 2021 with the position in 2016. Whilst participation in full-time education decreases with age, the participation rates of those aged 19 to 24 were higher in 2021 than 5 years earlier. For those aged 16, the proportion in full time education decreased by 7.6 percentage points in 2021 compared to 2016. This proportion decreased by 3.3 percentage points and for those aged 17 and by 1.7% for those aged 18.

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Participation of adults and young people on StatsWales

This release contains data for one of the national wellbeing indicators (22: percentage of people in education, employment or training, measured for different age groups).

There is a national milestone associated with this indicator; ‘at least 90% of 16 to 24 year olds will be in education, employment, or training by 2050’. Whilst this release considers data for 16 to 18 year olds and 19 to 24 year olds separately, the national milestone is based on the full 16 to 24 age range.

Provisional estimates show that 84.5% of 16 to 24 year olds were in education, employment or training in 2021, down from 85.4% in 2020.

This release presents the annual snapshot of participation of young people in education and the labour market. The statistics are used within the Welsh Government to monitor trends in the level of participation in education and training, and the proportion of young people who are NEET.

The Youth Engagement and Progression Framework  was originally published in 2013 and was refreshed in September 2022. The Framework is a systematic mechanism to identify and respond to young people at risk of becoming NEET, who are NEET and/or who are at risk of being homeless. It focuses on young people aged 11 to 18 and is built of 6 core components:

1. Early identification
2. Brokerage
3. Monitoring progression
4. Provision
5. Employability and employment opportunities
6. Accountability.

These statistics are of relevance to Stronger, Fairer, Greener Wales: A Plan for Employability and Skills. The technical annex for the strategy refers to the national indicator based on data from this release (see also the Well-being of Future Generations Act section below). These statistics are also part of the evidence base for the Young Persons Guarantee.

Relevance

The statistics are used within the Welsh Government to monitor trends in the level of participation in education and training, and the proportion of young people who are NEET.

Other key users of these statistics include:

• members of the Senedd and the Research Service in the Welsh Parliament
• other government departments
• students, academics and universities

Accuracy

Sampling variability

The economic status proportions are estimated from the Annual Population Survey. Therefore, these estimates will be subject to variation due to sampling error and also non-sampling error and should be treated with caution. As a result changes in trend need to be interpreted with a degree of caution, as changes could be attributed to sampling effects as well as real effects. Currently it is not possible to distinguish between these impacts.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recalibrated the weights of Annual Population Survey datasets for periods covering the year ending 2020 quarter 1 to the year ending 2021 quarter 4. Further information on this reweighting and its impact is available in an article published by the ONS on the Impact of reweighting the Labour Force Survey (Office for National Statistics).

Revisions policy

Provisional 2021 figures will be finalised in next year’s publication, due for release in July 2023. The following table shows the difference between the 2020 provisional estimates published in last year’s release and the final published estimate for the key series of the proportion who are NEET, and the proportion in education or training.

These are larger revisions than those generally seen when provisional estimates are updated with final data. This is partly due to downward revisions in the number of young people in full-time and part-time education between last year’s provisional data and the final data available for this release.

Revisions for earlier years are only made in line with revisions to source data. Totals may not match due to rounding.

Population data

Mid-year population estimates up to and including 2020 (based on the 2011 Census), along with 2020-based population projections, are used in deriving these participation estimates. First results from the 2021 Census indicate that the estimated population of Wales is lower than both the 2020 mid-year estimate and the 2021 projection. Larger differences are seen in younger age groups. The Office for National Statistics will be publishing rebased mid-year population estimates and updated projections in 2023. As a result, we intend to revise previously published participation estimates in next year’s release.

This issue may also affect data from the Annual Population Survey.

Comparisons with previous years

There were changes made in the data sources and methodology used to derive the participation estimates introduced for the year end 2004 edition. Care should be taken when comparing earlier estimates with estimates from year end 2004 onwards. Please contact us for advice before using comparisons with previous years.

In particular the following changes need to be taken into account when making comparisons with previous years:

Further education and work-based learning

The LLWR replaced the Individualised Student Record (ISR) from the start of the academic year 2004/05, therefore a discontinuity may result from the change in data collection. Prior to the academic year 2004/05 work-based learning activity was collected via the National Trainee Database (NTD). The NTD included college based WBL trainees, who were also included in the number of FE enrolments. This double counting has been removed with the collection of WBL activity via LLWR by the introduction of a unique identifier that is common to the learner no matter where their activity takes place.

Economic activity

For 2001 to 2003 economic activity was based on the Welsh Local Labour Force Surveys (WLLFS), with a similar sample size to the APS. Prior to 2001/02, economic activity was estimated using the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

Timeliness and punctuality

This Statistical Release is published annually, usually in July, and covers the preceding year end (provisional data) and the year earlier (final data). It was published later this year due to the reweighting of the Annual Population Survey.

Accessibility and clarity

This statistical release is pre-announced and then published on the Statistics and Research website of the Welsh Government. All underlying data for this release as well as other years are available on the StatsWales website.

Comparability and coherence

For this release, participation in education and the labour market has been estimated using population, education and work-based learning data along with the Annual Population Survey (APS) to estimate the labour market status. Further information on these sources and the derivation of the statistics presented in this release is available in our methodology note.

In addition to this release we publish a bulletin Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) to provide users with more timely and detailed (but less statistically robust) NEET statistics based on the APS only.

National Statistics status

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

National Statistics status means that official statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value.

All official statistics should comply with all aspects of the Code of Practice for Statistics. They are awarded National Statistics status following an assessment by the UK Statistics Authority’s regulatory arm. The Authority considers whether the statistics meet the highest standards of Code compliance, including the value they add to public decisions and debate. The designation of these statistics as National Statistics was confirmed in July 2012 following a full assessment against the Code of Practice.

Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, and have made the following improvements:

• Included a number of visuals showing long term trends as well as commentary on these trends
• Eliminated un-necessary tables from the release as they are freely available of StatsWales

It is Welsh Government’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected of National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with the Authority promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored.

Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG)

The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of Wales. The Act puts in place seven wellbeing goals for Wales. These are for a more equal, prosperous, resilient, healthier and globally responsible Wales, with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. Under section (10)(1) of the Act, the Welsh Ministers must (a) publish indicators (“national indicators”) that must be applied for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the wellbeing goals, and (b) lay a copy of the national indicators before Senedd Cymru. Under section 10(8) of the Well-being of Future Generations Act, where the Welsh Ministers revise the national indicators, they must as soon as reasonably practicable (a) publish the indicators as revised and (b) lay a copy of them before the Senedd. These national indicators were laid before the Senedd in 2021. The indicators laid on 14 December 2021 replace the set laid on 16 March 2016 and this release includes one of the national indicators:

• (22) Percentage of people in education, employment or training, measured for different age groups.

Information on the indicators, along with narratives for each of the well-being goals and associated technical information is available in the Wellbeing of Wales report.

As a national indicator under the Act they must be referred to in the analyses of local wellbeing produced by public services boards when they are analysing the state of economic, social, environmental and cultural wellbeing in their areas.

The Act states national milestones must be set that “…the Welsh Ministers consider would assist in measuring whether progress is being made towards the achievement of the wellbeing goals.” In doing so Welsh Ministers must specify how we know that a national milestone has been achieved and the time by which it is to be achieved.

National milestones are not performance targets for any individual organisation, but are collective measures of success for Wales.

In this release indicator 22: percentage of people in education, employment or training, measured for different age groups corresponds to a national milestone:

• At least 90% of 16 to 24 year olds will be in education, employment, or training by 2050

Further information on the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

The statistics included in this release could also provide supporting narrative to the national indicators and be used by public services boards in relation to their local well-being assessments and local well-being plans.

We welcome any feedback on any aspect of these statistics which can be provided by email to post16ed.stats@gov.wales

Statistician: Jonathan Ackland
Email: post16ed.stats@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099

SFR 207/2022