Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection survey (headline estimates): week ending 19 February 2022

During this period of high infections, Office for National Statistics (ONS) are publishing early headline results from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection survey on Wednesdays. This release accompanies a limited dataset which includes estimates of positivity by country and variant analysis by country. This is a summary of those headline estimates for Wales. This does not replace the full COVID-19 infection survey release that is published every Friday at 12pm. A statement explaining the need for the additional headline estimates has been produced by ONS.

Today, ONS have published estimates of the numbers of people testing positive for COVID-19 in the week ending 19 February 2022.

• In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 decreased in the two weeks up to 19 February 2022, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week. It is estimated that 98,200 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 83,100 to 114,900). This equates to around 1 in 30 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 35 to 1 in 25).
• COVID-19 infections compatible with the Omicron continue to be the most common variant in Wales.

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to decrease in the latest week in England. In Wales and Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 decreased in the two weeks up to 19 February 2022, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week. In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased in the week up to 20 February 2022.

UK comparison

• In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to decrease in the week ending 19 February 2022.  It is estimated that 2,096,200 people in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2,015,100 to 2,175,600). This equates to around 1 in 25 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 25 to 1 in 25).
• In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 decreased in the two weeks up to 19 February 2022, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week. It is estimated that 132,700 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 115,900 to 150,900). This equates to around 1 in 14 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 16 to 1 in 12).
• In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased in the week up to 20 February 2022. It is estimated that 240,700 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 215,100 to 269,400). This equates to around 1 in 20 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 25 to 1 in 20).

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Modelled results are provisional and subject to revision.

These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. The figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.

A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis. 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

Cases are identified as being compatible with known variants of COVID-19 based on their genetic patterns. Variants of Concern and Variants of Interest have recently been relabelled by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Further information on the identification of variants in the survey can be found on the ONS website.

The majority of infections are compatible with the Omicron BA.1 variant, therefore we are presenting the total infections.

Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG)

The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of Wales. The Act puts in place seven wellbeing goals for Wales. These are for a more equal, prosperous, resilient, healthier and globally responsible Wales, with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. Under section (10)(1) of the Act, the Welsh Ministers must (a) publish indicators (“national indicators”) that must be applied for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the wellbeing goals, and (b) lay a copy of the national indicators before Senedd Cymru. Under section 10(8) of the Well-being of Future Generations Act, where the Welsh Ministers revise the national indicators, they must as soon as reasonably practicable (a) publish the indicators as revised and (b) lay a copy of them before the Senedd. These national indicators were laid before the Senedd in 2021. The indicators laid on 14 December 2021 replace the set laid on 16 March 2016.

Information on the indicators, along with narratives for each of the well-being goals and associated technical information is available in the Wellbeing of Wales report.

Further information on the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

The statistics included in this release could also provide supporting narrative to the national indicators and be used by public services boards in relation to their local wellbeing assessments and local wellbeing plans.

Next update

ONS will no longer publish early headline results at 2pm on Wednesdays. The regular bulletin on estimates from the COVID-19 Infection Survey will be published weekly on Fridays at midday.

Statistician: Sean White
Telephone: 0300 025 0822
Email: kas.covid19@gov.wales

Media: 0300 025 8099

SFR 64/2022