Statistics Wales Demography newsletter: December 2021

The Welsh Government’s 2020 mid-year estimate of households were published on 23 September. The household estimates use data from the latest available censuses of the population to calculate household formation rates, and apply them to current population estimates.

Main points

• Between mid-2019 and mid-2020, the estimated number of households in Wales increased by around 9,520 (0.7%) to 1.38 million, largely due to the increase in one-person households.
• Since we started publishing household estimates in 1991, the estimated number of households has increased by 23.8%, and since 2011, it has increased by 5.7%.
• The estimated number of households increased for all 22 local authorities in Wales between mid-2019 and mid-2020.
• At Wales level, the estimated number of people living in private households (or ‘household population’) increased by around 16,500 (0.5%) to 3.1 million.
• In mid-2020, the estimated average household size for Wales was 2.26 persons per household compared with 2.52 persons in mid-1991.

On 22 October, an additional cube was published on StatsWales with data from the 2018-based local authority household projections, specifically for one-person households (StatsWales). This is available by age and sex, for all the variants that have been produced.

On 16 September, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published Population estimates by output areas, electoral, health and other geographies, England and Wales: mid-2020 (ONS). Small area (StatsWales) and national park (StatsWales) population estimates have been updated on StatsWales to reflect the latest data.

An interim set of 2020-based national population projections for Wales and the countries of the UK (ONS) are due to be published on 12 January 2022 by the ONS.

This publication has been delayed (from 6 December) to allow sufficient time to use the latest and best available death occurrences data, which maximises the quality and relevance of the projections throughout the subsequent projections period. The ONS has engaged with key stakeholders to understand their timescales for planned onward uses of these statistics and are aiming to minimise adverse impacts from the delay.

Following the recent ONS consultation on 2021 Census outputs (ONS), they have published a blog outlining the next steps before the release of Census data (ONS).

Local authorities have been invited to help in the quality assurance of provisional census estimates for the first time. Further information about the ONS’ plan (Government Delivery).

In December this year, the ONS will publish an initial response to the consultation feedback that they have received. The publication of the first results from the Census is scheduled for late spring 2022.

On 4 October, the ONS published two reports on designing and delivering a digital census. Designing a digital-first census (ONS) looks at how the ONS designed a digital-first census to make sure that everyone could take part, and the response to this. Delivering the Census 2021 digital service (ONS) looks at how the technical aspects of the 2021 Census digital service were built, for the interests of digital professionals.

On 25 November, the Home Office published EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) quarterly statistics (Home Office). This provides an in-depth look at the total number of applications to the EUSS from the start of the scheme and 30 September 2021. These statistics are experimental (ONS) meaning they are going through development and evaluation.

Main points

• There were over 96,600 concluded applications in Wales, of which just under a quarter were from Cardiff
• Of the concluded applications in Wales, 57% received settled status and 37% received pre-settled status
• For the UK as a whole, there were 5.82 million concluded applications to the scheme, of which 52% received settled status, and 42% received pre-settled status

The ONS released two publications on 25 November covering international migration, in addition to several blogs published on the 26 November providing an update on the population and migration statistics transformation.

International migration statistical design: progress report (ONS)

Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality (ONS): Update with data for the year ending June 2021 using the Labour Force Survey to provide population estimates by country of birth and nationality. The non-UK born population in Wales was estimated to be between 170,000 and 205,000 in the year ending June 2021, broadly similar to recent years. This data is available at local authority level.

Long-term international migration, provisional (ONS): New release with data at a UK level on estimates of migration produced using statistical modelling. This release is designated experimental statistics (ONS).

For information on Welsh language statistics, please see the Statistics Wales quarterly update.