National population projections (interim data): 2020-based

Population projections are subject to uncertainty and are based on assumptions on future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. The impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on demographic behaviour is not yet clear and this contributes to greater uncertainty. Further information is available in the Office for National Statistics bulletin and methodology documents.

Main points

• Between mid-2020 and mid-2030, the population of Wales is projected to increase by 2.6% from 3.17 million to 3.25 million.
• Between mid-2020 and mid-2045, the population of Wales is projected to increase by 4.2% from 3.17 million to 3.30 million.
• The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% between mid-2020 and mid-2030 to 69.2 million, with the population projected to grow in each of the four countries.

Wales population projections by age

• The number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 10.5% to 503,800 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.
• The number of people aged 16-64 is projected to increase by 1.7% to 1,971,300 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.
• The number of people aged 65 or older is projected to increase by 16.1% to 776,300 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.
• The number of people aged 75 or older is projected to increase by 23.9% to 380,200 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.

Wales population projections by component of change

• It is projected that there will continue to be more deaths than births, with a total of 77,000 more deaths than births between mid-2020 and mid-2030.
• The projected growth in the population is driven by migration with total net migration of 159,000 between mid-2020 and mid-2030.

Notice

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published a notice on its 2020-based interim national population projections to inform users of an error affecting international migration out of Wales. The ONS states that the impact of this on the projections for Wales is modest, with the population projected to be around 2,700 lower by 2030 than what is published, and around 16,400 lower by 2045. In consultation with the Welsh Government, the ONS has decided not to replace the product. For further information, please visit the ONS website.