Short-term output indicators: October to December 2020

Impact of coronavirus

These estimates cover October to December 2020 which was during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Annual estimates are also included which relate to approximately three months prior to, and nine months of the pandemic period. 

Care should be taken when interpreting these indices, estimates for individual quarters can fluctuate and it is recommended that emphasis is based on longer term trends.

Estimates for Wales are typically more volatile than the UK, and as a result comparison between the two should be made with caution, especially over the shorter term.

Main points

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All three indices decreased on an annual basis (the latest four quarters compared to the previous four quarters) for both Wales and the UK. On a quarterly basis, the indices showed small increases. This follows the largest quarterly decreases on record in April to June 2020 (which included part of the initial lockdown period) and the subsequent largest increases on record during July to September 2020 (reflecting the easing of restrictions over the summer months).

Index of Market Services

Compared to the previous quarter, the index of market services increased by 0.9% in Wales and decreased by 0.5% in the UK.

The increase in Wales was largely accounted for by increases in Transport and Administrative and Support Service Activities.

The longer-term trends show an 8.4% decrease for Wales and 9.8% decrease for the UK in the year to December 2020, compared with the previous twelve months. These are the largest year-on-year decreases since the series began in 1998.

In Wales, eight of the nine Market Service industry indices decreased on an annual basis.

Index of Production

The Index of Production for Wales shows a 0.5% increase when compared to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 2.0% over the same period.

The longer-term trend for Wales shows an 8.4% decrease in the year to December 2020 on an annual basis. UK output decreased by 8.6% over the same period.

Index of Construction

The Index of Construction for Wales shows an 8.7% increase when comparing the latest quarter to the previous quarter. UK output increased by 2.7% over the same period.

The longer-term trend for Wales shows a 10.2% decrease in the year to December 2020 on an annual basis. UK output decreased by 13.8% over the same period.