Estimates of housing need (by tenure): 2018-based

In January 2019, we published a statistical article on Estimates of housing need in Wales at a national and regional level (2018 based).

This second publication splits the estimates of housing need into two housing tenures:

• Market housing (owner occupier and private rented sector)
• Affordable housing (intermediate and social rents).

Methodology

The overall estimates of additional housing need are based on:

• estimates of existing unmet need
• newly arising need (2014-based household projections)

The figures presented in this article are an estimate of the need for additional housing units by tenure given a set of assumptions. The tenure split has only been produced for the first 5 years of estimates (2018/19 to 2022/23). Forecasts such as future household income growth and future change to private rent prices are required to produce the split of estimates by tenure.

Limitations

These estimates:

• DO estimate what the tenure split of housing need could be given a set of assumptions
• DO use the best available data sources in the underlying assumptions as agreed by an expert group
• DO form a basis of discussion for policy decisions.
• ARE NOT official statistics
• CANNOT forecast exactly what is going to happen in the future
• SHOULD NOT be used as housing targets
• DO NOT attempt to estimate the number of households in unsuitable accommodation

Key results

• Under the different variants of household projections, the annual estimated requirement of market housing units ranges from 3,400 (zero migration) and 5,200 (10 year migration) each year. Affordable housing units range from 3,300 (zero migration and lower variant) to 4,400 (10 year migration).
• Under the central estimates, an average of approximately 4,400 market housing units and 3,900 affordable housing units would be required each year from 2018/19 to 2022/23.
• These estimates suggest that on average, under the central estimates, 53% of additional housing units should be market housing with the remaining 47% affordable housing (intermediate rent or social) throughout 2018/19 to 2022/23.
• Under both 10 year migration and the higher variant the proportional split of additional housing units is 54%(r) market and 46%(r) affordable. Under zero migration and the lower variant, the proportional split of additional housing units is 51% market housing and 49% affordable housing.

(r) Revised on 06 June 2019

Further information

This statistical article is supported by data published on StatsWales as well as an excel tool where all data sources and underlying assumptions can be altered to observe the impact on the estimates of additional housing units split by tenure. The Excel tool is available under the Data heading below.