The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025: integrated impact assessment

Background

Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales sets out our 10 year strategy and vision to prevent and reduce obesity across Wales. In 2022, the Welsh Government issued a healthy food environment consultation which covered a variety of measures being considered under the Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales strategy. The impact assessment below relates to The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025, which takes forward 3 of the proposals consulted on in 2022. The aim of these regulations is to encourage the food industry to produce and promote healthier products and, in doing do, make it easier for consumers to make healthier choices.

Data shows that: 

• By the time they start school, the proportion of children with overweight or obesity was 13.4% and 11.4% respectively in 2022 to 2023.
• Over 60% of adults over the age of 16 are overweight or obese.
• The current annual full cost of obesity in Wales is an estimated £3 billion.
• Obesity is one of the major risks to health in Wales. It is the leading cause of several major conditions including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and some cancers, and there are also links with orthopaedic problems, poor mental health and depression.
• Children and adults in Wales are not eating balanced diets. We consume too much sugar, saturated fat and salt and too many calories, but not enough fibre, fruit and vegetables.

The need for action is clear. However, preventing obesity is a complex challenge, with many contributing factors acting at individual, community, societal and global levels. 

The food environment

Our food environment has developed in a way which prioritises convenience over health. This includes a focus on easy, quick foods that will often be energy dense and high in fat and sugar and are sometimes more affordable. 

In recent years, action has been taken to encourage industry to make the food it sells healthier and less calorific (through the UK Government’s calorie, sugar and salt reduction programmes) and to label products to help people make more informed, healthier choices (for example, through front of pack nutrition labelling). This action has been introduced across the UK on a voluntary basis. Although the food industry has made some progress in reformulation and providing healthier options as a result, this has not been consistently delivered or maintained. With the exception of front of pack nutrition labelling where uptake is high (on around two thirds of prepacked food), voluntary approaches in this area have not delivered the change required. For example, manufacturers and retailers met only 52% of all average targets set in the 2014 to 2017 salt reduction programme.

There are many reasons voluntary action doesn’t always work or deliver the change required, not least because inconsistent adoption leads to an uneven playing field. The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025 are designed to build upon voluntary action, deliver consistency, provide clarity and support a healthier shopping environment for the consumer. The regulations will also help to maintain a level playing field for the food industry, ensuring that those who are making efforts to increase availability and promotion of healthier options are not disadvantaged by those who are not.

Healthier shopping baskets

Specifically, marketing and promotion strategies in stores are very effective at influencing food purchases. 40% of food and drink bought in UK stores is on promotion, the highest in Europe. The most recent pre-COVID-19 figures for Wales^{[footnote 1]} indicate that promotions are most prevalent among products high in fat, sugar or salt for example, biscuits (33.9%) and confectionary (36.1%). 

Promotions are so effective, that retailers choose to sell some commonly bought products (known as key value items) at a cost loss in order to entice us into their stores. This is in the hope we will complete our weekly or monthly grocery shop there and thereby increase their share of the grocery market.

Although promotions appear to save consumers money, data shows that they can actually increase consumer spending by around 20%. These products encourage people to buy more than they intended to purchase in the first place. Research also shows that up to 83% of purchases made on price promotion are impulse purchases, with only 17% planned.^{[footnote 2]} For example, around half of chocolate purchased is on promotion. Fundamentally, these multibuy promotions result in £75 additional spending per year for an average household.^{[footnote 3]} This, in turn, is offset by £61 of non-incremental purchasing, therefore the total impact of multibuy promotions is an overall additional expenditure of £14. The excess consumption of these products catalyses the increasing likelihood of obesity related diseases later in life. 

While people may purchase promoted items on the assumption that the additional quantity bought will be offset by reduced purchases later (having long-term cost savings), this does not consider the subconscious decision to consume more when more is available. This can lead to increases in consumption frequency and the quantity eaten which could lead to excess calorie consumption.^{[footnote 4]} Moreover, when comparing homes with and without large stockpiles, consumption over the first week following the purchase is found to be substantially greater in homes with large stockpiles. When the relative difference in the quantity available within homes has fallen, this difference in consumption between homes disappears. This increased consumption is thought to occur due to the increased visibility of stockpiled foods, not least because they are often stored in visible locations within the home.

Price promotions on high fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) products can lead to excess consumption of goods which are associated with a greater propensity to create impulse purchases^{[footnote 5]} and act as a significant contributor to weight gain.^{[footnote 6]} Welsh consumers recognise the influence such promotions have on their buying habits with a Cancer Research poll finding 86% of respondents believed that deals that offer extra influence how much unhealthy food they buy. In a Which? poll of 2016^{[footnote 7]} the top ask of retailers from consumers was for more healthy food to be offered on promotion.

The placement of products can also greatly influence our food choices. A 2018 Obesity Alliance study found that 43% of all food and drink products located in prominent areas, such as displays at store entrances, checkouts, aisle ends, or free-standing display units were for sugary foods and drinks^{[footnote 8]}. This type of marketing is used widely in the UK to promote high fat, salt and sugar foods, and is particularly influential for children and young people^{[footnote 9]}. It encourages impulse purchasing which represents between 45% and 70% of food purchase, and 80% of purchases in some categories^{[footnote 10]}.

The Obesity Alliance study also found that some supermarkets had a higher proportion of sugary food and drinks at checkout than others, ranging from 30% in one major supermarket to 73% in another and that less than 1% of food and drink products promoted in high profile locations were fruit or vegetables. The evidence also suggests that prime location positioning of products increases consumer purchasing independent of any price reductions, signifying that increasing visibility of a product can lead the consumer to wrongly assume it represents better value. Food manufacturers pay a premium to place their products in these locations for this reason.

Healthier eating out of our homes

Free refills on sugary sweetened beverages are a feature of some restaurant and pub chains. They are typically priced to appear as a good value option compared to the purchase of a single serving, such as a bottle of soft drink, which is likely to incentivise purchasing. Children may also be incentivised by the novelty of self-service drinks and the choice of 26 varieties and flavours. In 2015, the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) published a report on carbohydrates and health, which recommended the amount of sugars people consume as part of their daily calorie intake should be halved from 10% to 5%, and consumption of sugar sweetened beverages minimised. The report found consuming sugary drinks is leading to unhealthy weight gain in children and young people and is linked with a greater risk of tooth decay, with 28% of children suffering from tooth decay by the time they turn 5. In adults, too much sugar leads to excess calorie intake, weight gain and obesity. 

Figures from the national diet and nutrition survey, as referenced in the SACN report, found sugary drinks to be the highest contributor (30%) of sugars to the diet of 4 to 10 year olds. When compared with the new SACN recommendation, children and young people were consuming around 3 times more sugar than recommended, with much of it coming from high sugar drinks. The calorie intake from sugar sweetened beverages contain little nutritional value, with high levels of free sugars[footnote 11], and tend to not satisfy hunger in comparison to solid food. Resultingly, total consumption of sugar sweetened beverages may increase while consumption of foods with more nutritional calories to decrease, causing weight gain and increased obesity over time.

What do The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025 cover?

The regulations restrict in Wales all prime location and volume based promotions for specified high fat, salt and sugar foods by medium to large food and drink retailers. Free refills on sugary drinks are also subject to restrictions.

Delivery against programme for government and wellbeing objectives

These regulations have been developed as part of Welsh Government’s Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales Strategy. The publication of such an obesity strategy is a statutory duty conferred upon the Welsh Ministers under the Public Health (Wales) Act 2017.The regulations aim for a shift in dietary habits, which is also linked with the ambitions set out within Welsh Government’s Net Zero Plan.

Voluntary action by industry to support the public to make healthier choices (reformulation, nutrition labelling) has not had the desired impact on dietary shift. These regulations will be the first step in ensuring a level playing field by restricting the presentation and promotion of less healthy foods.

The regulations will play a significant role in delivering against Welsh Government’s commitment to reduce health inequalities and support a sustained focus on the role of prevention. 

Future generations

The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 requires us to work in accordance with the sustainable development principle. The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025 directly support this general principle, which is about making positive interventions now, to benefit people living their lives in Wales in the future. 

Long term

The regulations are designed to shift the food environment towards healthier options as part of a multi-component approach which focuses upon how we can achieve our 10 year aims set out in Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales. As we move forward with the strategy, we will be bold and test new ways of doing things and learn as we go to continuously improve. We will use the best available evidence to embed a range of effective interventions to support the conditions required to impact on our nation’s health in the long-term.

Prevention

Prevention is a central to the design of these regulations. They aim is to enable people to make healthier food choices and to take away triggers which are provided within the food environment, which shifts consumers towards buying less healthy food which, in excess, is poor for our dietary health and likely to make us mentally and physically unwell.

Integration

In designing these regulations and the wider programme of work they form part of under the Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales strategy, we have worked with public bodies and other Welsh Government departments to bring together a range of policy goals and ensure our actions directly complement and support the seven wellbeing goals. As we consider taking further action to improve the health of our food environments and evaluate the impact of these regulations once in force, we will continue to consider how we can align our aims and objectives with broader existing objectives across different public bodies.

Involvement

To ensure we achieved the wellbeing goals and designed a successful policy proposal, we have engaged with a wide range of stakeholders who represent diverse interests. This engagement has taken the form of 2 public consultations, as well as more informal means of engagement. We have also worked closely with industry and enforcement body stakeholders to produce the technical guidance that sets out how the regulations should be implemented.

Collaboration

When we carried out our original healthy food environment consultation in 2022, we agreed to create the right conditions for transformative ideas and collaboration to flourish. Throughout the policy development process, we have continued to work with our key national partners and groups across industry to make sure what we are proposing is practical for all impacted groups. As we consider taking further action around our food environment, we will continue to involve public body partners, the third sector and community leaders to refine all potential policy options. 

Costs and savings

These are set out separately within our Regulatory Impact Assessment.

People and communities

We expect the regulations to have a positive impact on the food environment within communities, shifting people’s dietary choices towards healthier products by increasing the availability and visibility of low fat, salt and sugar foods. The policy intention behind the regulations is to make the healthier choice the easier choice for all Welsh consumers. However, we know that those on lower incomes often have less healthy diets than their wealthier counterparts and so we anticipate that the measures will have a moderately more positive impact in lower income communities. 

The full impact of the regulations on people and communities is considered as part of the:

• children's rights impact assessment
• equality impact assessment

Rural proofing

Voluntary action by industry to support consumers to make healthier choices (reformulation, nutrition labelling, etc.) has not been delivered consistently nor has it had the desired impact on dietary shift. The regulations will ensure a level playing field by mandating restrictions relating to the promotion and placement of less healthy food and incentivising food businesses to reformulate foods to make them healthier.

The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025 do not have a strong need for rural proofing as it is not anticipated that there will be a significant difference in the impact the change will have on people living in rural areas, compared to those in more urban areas. The only possible difference in impact could be to those living in rural communities who may be more likely to buy their food from smaller retailers who may be out of scope of the regulations.

Data from ACS shows that around that 37% of convenience stores are in rural communities where the store is often providing the only shopping option for the local community. 34% of convenience stores are part of a symbol group, which are in scope of the policy, however convenience stores not part of a symbol group are excluded. Where rural communities are served by retailers who are exempt from restrictions due to their size, there may be slightly less of a positive shift in the food environment. Evidence from the National Child Measurement Programme highlights that obesity prevalence is higher in urban areas than rural areas. This highlights that although many convenience stores (those that are small or micro, or below 2,000 sq. ft) are excluded from the policy, and are stores which are often the only shopping option in rural areas, obesity prevalence is lower in rural communities.

As part of the consultation process that was carried out in 2022 ahead of taking the regulations forward, we gathered names and email addresses of public priority groups for the purposes of managing a series of focus groups at which people’s opinions and views were gathered. These focus groups were balanced in terms of demography and as diverse and inclusive as possible, including those from rural communities.

Health

How (either positively or negatively), and to what extent (significant/moderate/minimal impact), will the proposal impact health determinants?

We expect these proposals to have a significant positive impact on health determinants. Around 60% of adults in Wales are now overweight or obese, with a quarter of those classified as obese. Data shows that children and adults in Wales are not eating balanced diets. The National Diet and Nutrition Survey shows we consume too much sugar, saturated fat and salt and too many calories, but not enough fibre, fruit and vegetables. 

The availability, visibility and price of products in a retail environment shape the foods we consume and the foods that are promoted are often poor for our health. For example, a 2018 study by the Obesity Alliance found that 43% of all food and drink products located in prominent areas, such as displays at store entrances, checkouts, aisle ends, or free standing display units were for sugary foods and drinks. By shifting presentation and price promotions away from foods high in fat, salt and sugar, this policy seeks to support the Welsh public to choose healthier products in food stores and online.

Whilst we do not expect the regulations to have immediate positive impacts on health determinants at a population level, in the long term we expect them to support people to live longer, healthier lives, free from diet related disease. 

Could there be a differential health impact on particular groups?

This policy is designed to benefit the health of all societal groups and is crucial for both the immediate and the long term health and wellbeing of our population. The food and drink categories targeted by these restrictions focus on foods that significantly contribute to children’s sugar and calorie intakes and are often heavily promoted. In this way, the policy takes a preventative approach to improving the health of children in particular. We know that if we do not take action to improve public health outcomes, current trends will continue. This will mean that more people in Wales will die prematurely due to cancer, heart disease, liver disease and type 2 diabetes. More lives will be adversely affected by disability and ill health. Obesity also impacts negatively on our mental health which in many cases tracks with us from a young age and has lifelong consequences and impacts.

The policy intention is also to reduce health inequalities as we know that the greatest obesity rates are present in communities where there are higher deprivation levels. Whilst promotions may appear to make products cheaper, they also increase the amount of food and drink we buy and consume by about a fifth. By restricting promotions away from less healthy products, we hope to encourage retailers to promote healthier choices that are affordable for those on a lower income. This is, however, a complex area of consideration which is explored further as part of the health impact assessment and other impact assessments carried out to support the development of these regulations.

If you identify significant health impacts

A full health impact assessment is available.

Privacy

These regulations do not involve processing information that could be used to identify individuals.

Cultural wellbeing

We have concluded that these regulations will have no significant impact on cultural wellbeing.

Welsh language

A full Welsh language impact assessment is available.

A full Regulatory Impact Assessment has been completed for The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025. A summary of the impacts identified has been provided below.

Business, the general public and individuals

In the long term, we expect the regulations to have a significant positive impact on the public. In monetary terms, the health benefits to the population are estimated to be worth around £6.67 billion over a 25 year period. These benefits will be realised through a reduction in premature mortality rates related to diet related health conditions such as type 2 diabetes. Figures reported by The Food Foundation show that healthier, nutritious food is nearly three times more expensive than less healthy products and the cost of these healthier products has continued to rise in recent years. By shifting promotions away from less healthy products, our aim is to encourage food retailers to promote healthier foods and encourage reformulation of high fat, salt and sugar foods that can be damaging to people's health.

We expect the regulations to have a moderate impact on food retailers and manufacturers. Food retailers who are within scope of the restrictions may need to adapt their IT systems to comply with the regulations and may also incur familiarisation and product assessment costs. We estimate retailers will lose £269 million over 25 years. Manufacturers of high fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) products affected by these restrictions may lose £136.75 million in profits during the same period.

Public Sector including local government and other public bodies

It is anticipated that the regulations will have a significant positive impact on the NHS and social care settings over the next 25 years through a reduction in obesity related morbidity and mortality. In monetary terms, this impact will equate to a saving of £639.3 million for the NHS and £618.2 million for the social care sector. Additional benefits are expected to arise from the reinvestment of these savings in health and social care services to relieve pressure on services and improve patient care more broadly. 

We anticipate that enforcement bodies will be minimally negatively impacted by the regulations. We assume a small transitional cost and ongoing revenue costs for enforcement bodies to ensure the regulations continue to be observed. It is anticipated that this will equate to £413,251 over a 25 year period. We intend to continue working with enforcement bodies ahead of the regulations coming into force in 2026 to minimise any negative impacts.

Third Sector

These regulations will have minimal impact on third sector organisations.

Justice Impact

A full Justice System Impact Assessment was completed for these regulations. In light of this assessment, UK Government’s Ministry of Justice determined that the regulations would have minimal impact on the Justice System.

How have people most likely to be affected by the proposal been involved in developing it?

Key external stakeholders, the general public and cross-government policy areas have been fully engaged at each stage of the development and delivery of the proposals set out with The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025. In 2022, we undertook our first public consultation on the proposals and this consultation was accompanied by extensive stakeholder and public engagement. This included: 

• stakeholder events aimed at the food industry and non-governmental organisation (NGOs)
• focus groups aimed at our public priority groups
• wider public engagement to include roadshow events

The stakeholder engagement events aimed to capture in-depth stakeholder feedback and insight of food industry and NGO representatives. The focus groups were aimed at the following priority groups:

• older primary aged children (age 10 to 11)
• secondary aged children
• young people (age 16 to 25)
• parents and carers (from babies to teenagers)
• people from socio-economic groups C1, C2, D and E
• people on weight loss journeys
• people from black and minority ethnic backgrounds
• people aged 45 and over

In 2024, Welsh Government consulted again on draft regulations and a proposed enforcement approach. The main audience for this consultation was impacted industry and enforcement bodies who we engaged with informally alongside the consultation to seek their views and respond to queries. We also set up engagement groups with industry and enforcement groups to co-produce the guidance that will accompany the regulations to ensure it is as helpful as possible for those who will need to comply or monitor compliance with restrictions.

Our engagement at each stage of the policy development process has shaped the final proposals set out within the regulations. Individual impact assessments have also been informed by discussions with internal stakeholders and specific dialogue with external expert stakeholders. These impact assessments will be reviewed and updated as new information and evidence on impact becomes available.

What are the most significant impacts, positive and negative?

The regulations are intended to develop a healthier food environment to make the healthy choice, the easy choice for Welsh consumers. This is part of a multi-component approach set out in the national Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales strategy and compliments our overall approach to address both environmental and behavioural change aspects to help reduce and prevent obesity across Wales. 

We know that obesity is now one of the main preventable causes of premature death. If current trends continue more people in Wales will die prematurely due to cancer, heart disease, liver disease and diabetes. More lives will be adversely affected by disability and ill health. Obesity also impacts negatively on our mental health which in many cases tracks with us from a young age and has life-long consequences and impacts. 

At a population level we are purchasing and consuming too many foods which are high in fat, salt and sugar. This is having an adverse impact upon our health. By combatting some of the environmental factors that impact on people’s dietary choices, the regulations aim to support people to live healthier lives, free from diet-related disease.

As set out in our impact assessments, we have carefully considered whether restricting promotions on less healthy food items could negatively impact those in lower socio-economic groups. Whilst the conclusion of our assessments is that we do not expect the regulations to have a negative impact on this group, we plan to continue carefully assessing any potential impacts once the regulations are introduced.

We are also aware of the costs that impacted businesses and enforcement bodies may incur as a result of this legislative change and remain committed to working with impacted stakeholder groups to minimise these impacts and identify mitigations where appropriate.

In light of the impacts identified, how will the proposal maximise contribution to our wellbeing objectives and the 7 wellbeing goals and avoid, reduce or mitigate any negative impacts?

Reducing levels of obesity and overweight across the population will be a key outcome of the regulations and will help to significantly contribute towards achieving the aims set out in the 10 year Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales strategy, which was developed in the context of and to support the WFG Act. Through reshaping the food environment so that it is easier for consumers to make healthier food choices, the policy’s long-term aim is to prevent more people from developing obesity related illnesses. In turn, it is hoped that this will also help narrow the widening health inequalities gap, creating a healthier, more equal society for all. This directly supports the general principle of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, which is about making positive interventions now, to benefit people living their lives in Wales in the future.

The proposal contributes towards the act’s wellbeing goals under a healthier Wales by:

• ensuring food environments within the retail sector make the healthy choice the easy choice for Welsh consumers
• taking a preventative approach to reducing obesity rates and the number of people suffering from diet related health conditions

 For a more equal Wales the proposal also:

• supports action to close the gap between health outcomes in the least and most deprived communities across Wales by seeking to address rising levels of obesity, which we know disproportionately impacts those in lower-socioeconomic communities

The impact assessments we have completed seek to address the complexity of making changes to the food environment which will benefit all consumers and increase the affordability and accessibility of healthier options. To ensure the proposals are successful in supporting action towards the wellbeing goals, we will be considering how these regulations can be integrated into a package of broader voluntary, fiscal and regulatory measures for food environments, as part of the Healthy Weight: Healthy Wales strategy.

How will the impact of the proposal be monitored and evaluated as it progresses and when it concludes?

There will be a robust evaluation put in place following the introduction of The Food (Promotion and Presentation) (Wales) Regulations 2025. This will aim to understand whether the regulations have successfully realised the anticipated public health benefits and whether there have been any unintended negative impacts as a result of the restrictions.

[1] Kantar Worldpanel Take Home Purchasing | 52we data to 29 December 2019.

[2] Martin, L, Bauld, L & Angus, K. (2017). Rapid Evidence Review: The Impact of Promotions on High fat, Sugar and Salt (HFSS) Food and Drink on Consumer Purchasing and Consumption Behaviour and the Effectiveness of Retail Environment Interventions. Edinburgh: NHS Scotland.

[3] Hill, R. et al. Kantar. An analysis of the role of price promotions on the household purchases of food and drinks high in sugar. 2019.

[4] Chandon P, Wansink B. (2002). When are stockpiled products consumed faster? A convenience-salience framework of post-purchase consumption incidence and quantity. J. Mark. Res. 39:321–35.

[5] 0 Muruganantham G, Bhakat RS. (2013). A review of impulse buying behavior. International Journal of Marketing Studies, 2013 April 22;5(3):149.

[6] Mendoza JA, Drewnowski A, Christakis DA. (2007). Dietary energy density is associated with obesity and the metabolic syndrome in US adults. Diabetes care. 2007 April 1;30(4):974-9.

[7] Which? (2016). Should retailers do more to promote healthier food?

[8] The Obesity Health Alliance. (2018). Out of place: The extent of unhealthy foods in prime locations in supermarkets.

[9] University of Stirling. (2015). The impact of food and drink marketing on Scotland’s children and young people.

[10] BRQ Business Research Quarterly. (2015). Merchandising at the point of sale: differential effect of end of aisle and islands.

[11] Free sugars include monosaccharides and disaccharides added to foods and beverages by the manufacturer, cook or consumer, and sugars naturally present in honey, syrups, fruit juices and fruit juice concentrates.