Exploring a potential approach to understand and map the local level impacts and opportunities of a Just Transition to Net Zero (summary)

This executive summary outlines the conceptual development of the Just Transition Relative Vulnerability Index, a tool to assist the Welsh Government and decision-makers in Wales to develop their approach to mitigate against the potential negative consequences of climate change mitigation and support them in maximising the opportunities of the transition to a low carbon economy.

The goal of this index is to identify geographic areas and communities most vulnerable to the socio-economic impacts of climate change mitigation policies, such as job losses in high-emission industries, and to support decision-makers in mitigating these risks while promoting opportunities in the low-carbon economy.

The transition to Net Zero, as outlined in the Welsh Government’s Net Zero Wales plan, necessitates reducing greenhouse gas emissions across sectors. While presenting a range of opportunities, this transition may disproportionately impact certain communities, particularly those with high concentrations of jobs in carbon-intensive industries, lower financial security, or limited access to education and skills development.

In response to this challenge, the Welsh Government commissioned Miller Research to develop a conceptual approach to understanding these vulnerabilities, and which could assist policymakers in ensuring that no group or region is left behind during the transition. Specifically, the research had two overarching objectives, to identify variables which are impact factors on an individual or groups vulnerability to climate mitigation, and to develop an approach for modelling vulnerability to climate mitigation related disruption.

This project involved a comprehensive literature review, stakeholder engagement, and the development of an innovative index to assess relative vulnerability across Welsh local authorities.

Main stages of the methodology included:

• scoping interviews with policy officials and relevant stakeholders to identify climate change mitigation policy areas that may lead to socio-economic disruption, or impact a particular community, identify factors they considered particularly determinant of vulnerability, and factors which represented knowledge gaps, i.e those that they may take into consideration but there is insufficient evidence to influence decision-making
• a purposive literature review beginning with a broad overview of vulnerability and resilience, and followed by a specific review of the evidence for each vulnerability identified
• community engagement workshops to validate the findings of the literature review and gather lived experience insights from those living in vulnerable communities in Wales
• development of the Index using data on 10 key vulnerability factors, such as high-emission job density, financial security, skills and education, and social capital
• scenario analysis to explore the impact of specific policy interventions, such as the shift to electric vehicles and retrofitting housing for energy efficiency
• exploration of how the Index could be used in conjunction with GIS spatial analysis to provide insights for specific policy areas such as the growth of renewable energy production

This research found that it was possible with the existing evidence base to assess relative vulnerability to climate change mitigation at the local authority level. Through the literature review, comparison of similar indices, and the fieldwork, ten factors were identified which have a high impact on an individual or group’s relative vulnerability to Climate Change mitigation within Wales that can be mapped spatially. Additional factors such as gender, ethnicity and age were identified as those which are likely to impact on vulnerability, however, they were not appropriate for mapping, or the impacts formed part of the evidence base within other factors such as financial security.

Factors such as job density in high-emission industries, low levels of financial security, and limited educational attainment were found to exacerbate vulnerability where they were most prevalent. In contrast, regions with more diversified economies, higher levels of skills and education, and stronger social capital were better positioned to benefit from the transition.

In the process of developing the approach, the project identified a number of limitations with the Index which future attempts to develop the Index into a model or map of relative vulnerability are likely to encounter. Data availability was an issue with the local authority level the lowest scale where high quality publicly available data could be found. Despite being grounded in available evidence, the Index is limited by the subjective nature of the selection and weighting of factors which were ultimately determined by the project team’s perception of the evidence. Further limitations included the diverse breadth of climate change mitigation policy instruments which might each impact on individuals in different ways, and the need for a more robust evidence base including representative engagement with members of the public.

To address some of these limitations, the research demonstrated that a vulnerability factor’s relative weighting could be determined by the policy context and that the use of the Index in policy decisions could be furthered improved by adapting the general Index to suit the specific scenario.

The approach to assessing vulnerabilities to climate change mitigation policy developed in this research project provides national decision-makers with a potential tool to enable the consideration of specific place-based solutions and targeted support. It is an approach that will require ongoing iteration as new data is collected, new evidence gathered, and new challenges emerge on the pathway to Net Zero. In addition it will need to be treated flexibly as decision-makers interact with it and provide feedback on its effectiveness.

The research concludes with a series of recommendations designed to ensure that the Just Transition Relative Vulnerability Index remains a dynamic, inclusive, and effective tool for enabling a just and equitable transition to a low-carbon economy in Wales. These recommendations are divided into three categories.

Data and research

Includes recommendations concerning the inclusion of further datapoints, enhanced granularity, additional factors and the use of the index in policy evaluation.

Stakeholder engagement

Includes the need to engage with both local authorities and marginalised groups.

Methodological improvements

Offers recommendations on how to develop the tool by addressing the limitations of this research project and offers insights on the next steps of the approach including piloting its use.

Report authors: Dom Oliver, Emilio Solis, Katie Lloyd, Sean Heron and Susannah Lynn

Views expressed in this report are those of the researchers and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government.

For further information please contact:
Neil Waghorn
Social Research and Information Division
Knowledge and Analytical Services
Welsh Government
Cathays Park
Cardiff
CF10 3NQ
Email: ClimateAndEnvironmentResearch@gov.wales

Social research number: 15/2025
Digital ISBN: 978-1-83715-230-8