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Population projections for National Parks

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  • Release date: 20 April 2011
  • Period covered: 2008-2013
  • Next update: 21 October 2015
A report showing projections based on assumptions about births, deaths and migration.

These projections are based on revised National Park population estimates that were published by the ONS on 13th January 2011 and a similar methodology as was used to produce the 2008 based local authority population projections for Wales.

Key points

  • All National Parks are projected to see an increase in population between 2008 and 2023.
  • Brecon Beacons’ population is projected to increase from 32,700 in 2008 to around 33,300 in 2023 ,an increase of 2.0 per cent.
  • Pembrokeshire Coast’s population is projected to increase by 1.5 per cent from 22,100 in 2008 to 22,500 in 2023 before decreasing.
  • Snowdonia’s population is projected to increase from 25,700 in 2008 to 26,600 in 2023, an increase of 3.5 per cent.
  • The projected increase in population in National Parks in Wales is driven by in–migration from other parts of Wales and the UK. The number of deaths is projected to exceed the number of births (negative natural change) throughout the projection period and in each National Park. This is due to the older age profiles of the populations in National Parks compared to other areas.
  • All the National Parks are projected to see significant increases in the population aged 65 and over and a decrease in the population aged under 65.


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