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Household projections

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  • Release date: 23 March 2017
  • Next update: July 2017
Household projections provide estimates of the future numbers of households and of the numbers of people who live in them, and are based on population projections and a range of assumptions about household composition and characteristics.

Local authority household projections, 2014-based

Release date: 23 March 2017

This release presents the results of the 2014-based local authority household projections for Wales for the 25-year period from 2014 to 2039.

They are based on the 2014 based population projections produced by Welsh Government on the 29 September 2016.

Household projections provide estimates of the number of households and household types. They are based on assumptions about housing outlined in the Censuses.

The assumptions are generally based on membership rates within the different household types. The assumptions are based on past trends and project what households numbers will occur if these trends continue. As they are trend-based they become less certain the further they are carried forward.

Key Points

  • The number of households in Wales between 2014 and 2039 is projected to increase by 10 per cent from 1.33 million to 1.47 million. 
  • Cardiff is projected to increase the most, up 32 per cent with Swansea the next largest (at 17 per cent). 
  • Powys is the only local authority where there is projected to be a fall in the number of households (down 2 per cent).
  • 1-person households are the most common household type over the whole projection period, with a projected 27 per cent increase by 2039. 
  • 1-person households are projected to increase from 31 per cent of all households to 36 per cent.
  • Average household size is projected to decrease from 2.29 persons per household to 2.17.
  • Compared to the last set of household projections, there is little difference to 2019, after that the gap widens, with the difference at 2031 being 2 per cent lower in the 2014 based projections
  • Using the lower and higher variants the number of households in Wales is projected to grow to between 1.40 and 1.44 million by 2029, a difference of 37,000 households. 
  • Using the ten-year average migration assumption the number of households is projected to increase to 1.45 by 2029; using the zero migration assumption the number is projected to decrease to 1.40 million

Household projections for National Parks in Wales, 2013-based

Release date: 31 March 2016

The report analyses the results from the 2013-based household projections for the three National Parks in Wales: the Brecon Beacons, the Pembrokeshire Coast, and Snowdonia.

The number of households in the National Parks areas in Wales is projected to decrease slightly but steadily from 37,200 in 2013 to 36,400 in 2028.

Key points

  • The 2013-based National Parks household projections are lower than the previously published 2006-based household projections for both the numbers of households and the numbers of people living in them, with the differences slightly increasing the further forward the projections are taken.
  • Both the 2013-based and 2006-based National Parks household projections show decreases in average household size with the 2013-based projections estimating lower average household sizes.

Between 2013 and 2028:

  • The number people living in households in the National Parks areas in Wales is projected to decrease steadily from 80,200 to 75,100.
  • Average household size in the National Parks areas in Wales is projected to decrease steadily from 2.16 people to 2.06.

Contact

Statistician
Tel: 0300 025 5058
Email: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

Media
Tel: 0300 025 8099

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